The Equities Room Blog

Early Bird Report  6-8-12

SPY’s gapping down a bit today (though off pre-market lows), presumably on more Europe murkiness and some follow through from the weakness into yesterday’s close here.  131.20 is the pre-market low, that will be an area of interst (131.09 area is the 10d MA), while Wednesday’s lows of 129.93 will be another big area.  Likely wont’ t do much here today, as many of my scans didn’t show much in terms of quality setups.  Also think that the Summer Friday theme may start to set in and we’ll see some significant volume declines if the market appears to have found a range early on.

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up–  FRAN  MOH  CTFO  CNC  CHK

Gapping Down —  COO  PRGS  MCD

No indication — AGYS  RENT  XIDE  KMGB  CAMP

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: CLNT  INOD  SNAK  MDF  IDT  SEM  LOV

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: TWTC  RIMM

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  KORS  BNNY  ACM  HNT  JNPR   GRMN  LULU  GME  TITN

GoPauseGo:  AN

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend/move):

Up to 200d: PEG  TRP

Up to 50d: VAL  CIEN  ALK

Up to 20d: DFS  GT  PWR  PG  SHAW  ABT

Down to 20d ABX

Down to 50d: IVR  DDS  AVEO  MKC

Down to 200d: CTL

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position remaining.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

NONE–

I didn’t really get much out of my scans yesterday, in terms of ideal setups.  Not going to force any ideas out there if I don’t really see anything.  Trades today will likely come from the “in play” names  from today or earlier in the week.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Big Star

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report  6-7-12

A rate cut from China has sent the markets soaring in the pre-market (after they soared all-day yesterday), with the SPY’s now over 133.  This brings us to the goofy area on the daily chart where on 5/29 we saw a fake move to the upside, which was followed by 4 sharp red candles.  Yesterday’s action had the fingerprints of institutional money flow that was clearly concerned that they may be missing a near term bottom.  We gapped up, paused (briefly) at a.m. highs, and then grinded higher all day with hardly any hiccups with a real screaming squeeze in the final minutes of the day…the buy side programs were in charge.  Now that we have some actual news in the form of the China rate cut, it’ll be interesting to see how much more juice this rally has.  I would have to imagine there would be some willing sellers (both profit takers and short initiations)  into this gap after such a big two day run, but you never know…we’re still waiting to hear from Bernanke today.  If we get another pop on the open in the SPY’s 133.93 is 5/29 high, and may offer some resistance.

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up–   CACI  UHAL  SINA    MDR  AMRN  SJM

Gapping Down — PLL  MW  SEAC  HWD   NAV  LULU  XNPT  TITN

No indication — BV    Z  PBY  ABM    BNNY  UTIW

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: S  KEM  BAC  ATPG  HGT  WG

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: APOL  DGIT  ULTA  BGS  RE  MRH  DLTR  VVC  WWWW  SO  UNH  HPP  NTES  SCG  AME  WFM  CLX  AWK  LQDT  MDVN  KMB  SXCI  UA

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  COH  RAX  TPX MYGN  KMI  CONN  HAL  BHI

GoPauseGo:  OCN  JASO  MDCO  COL  VECO

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend/move): GWAY  SYNC

Up to 200d: VSH  LAMR  AAP  KLAC  BRCM  SODA

Up to 50d: MSI  INTU  PGR  UPL  ETR  AVB  CHK  EQY  CPT  DLLR  SPG  STWD   KRC  ENS  MAS  GGP  CVA  CMG  LH

Up to 20d: MUR  HOLX  TEX  NWSA  C  AVB  PFG  WDR  CSC  ADM  AMT  MRO  KRC  HSP  RBA  PHH  GGP  WRC  VLO  PAA  QCOM  UPS

Down to 20d

Down to 50d:

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position remaining.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

Long SCSS from 20.40 (1/3 of original position remaining.  Sold 1/3 at 21.40 and another 1/3 at 22.18)

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long: KMB
Bumping up into (and briefly over at the close) the $80 mark, which held as resistance twice previously over the past month.  Been trading in a $2 range between 78 and 80 for the most part during that time, a decent r/r here if the market continues higher.  Would use 79.50 for daytrades as the stop/ignore level, and 78 for any swings.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  KEM

Fairly thin name here, the stock popped above a three -week consolidation off lows yesterday up past its 20d Moving Average on good relative volume.  Not much resistance above on the daily chart as it tries to eat into the steep drop from early May, when it fell from $8 down to 5.50.  Interesting to note that it does hold $4.69/share in cash on the books.  Would be looking for a move back up to the 6.50 area as a first target.  Any swings would want to take profits there, move up stops and look from 7.00 and 7.50 as targets #2 and #3.  5.75 would be the stop price, and if you decide to wait out the open and it finds itself below that price, you could ignore the trade all together.

3.)  Pullback short: QCOM

Stock has had a nice 3-day bounce  from $55, up to yesterday’s close at $58.40.  This close area now finds itself  at three-pronged resistance, however.  It’s 20d, last month’s pivot resistance high of 58.75, and a TrendLine going back to late March 52 week highs.  None of this matters if we see across the board buying like we did yesterday, but if the market can’t hold this gap higher, and QCOM can’t manage to stay above this critical level, it looks like a decent r/r short.

4.) Traditional short:  KMI

Not real good action yesterday, closing near lows while the market was absolutely ripping higher.  31.75-32.00 area is support for the past few weeks, and was an old breakout pivot from late Feb.  Likely tough to get a flush today w/ the big gap up in the market, but I’ll watch this for a short through that support level.   Would only want to be short this name below 32…stop out/ignore if it trades above and/or market continues to rip higher.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Japandroids

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report  6-6-12

Interesting pre-market session here today… the SPY’s were gapping up quite a bit on Asian strength, hopes about some support from the ECB., and rumors of  QE3.   SPY’s got as high as 130.67, but have since sold off some after rates in Europe were left unchanged.   Will likely be a difficult tape to navigate from a daytrading standpoint.  On one hand, you’ll have a scenario where dip buyers may chase so that they haven’t “missed” a near term bottom.  On the other hand, the sellers that have been so dominant lately will look at this bounce as a great place to sell/short into.  Outside of pre-market highs of 130.67, we have the 10d MA looming above now around the 131 area, and 5/31 close at 131.47, and finally the 20d at 132.03 as resistance areas.  From here, I’ll be wary of a gap fill to the downside, and will likely wait out the opening range to nibble long, while watching for sector strength indicators to help find pockets of opportunity.

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– ULTA  HD LEE  CSTR  IRM  SVNT  CHK  ASTI  ACOM  DG  HOV

Gapping Down — MFRM  MIND  FCEL  TPX  BF.B

No indication — GWRE    CYBX  MTN

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: BLIN  MBLX  ECYT  AMRS  CDXS  SNTS  JAG

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: AKRX  CME  CBOE  OCN  IMGN  PCYC  SPPI  RE  MRH  CVH  CNQR

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  FAST  GILD  PCG  TZOO FDX

GoPauseGo:  ET

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend/move): TGT  LUV  LCC

Up to 200d: SLM  CVH

Up to 50d: N  AZO  AG  HBI

Up to 20d: SNDK  LH  BPL  OXY  AGN  VECO  CBS  MGM  CBST  VR  BIIB  O

Down to 20d

Down to 50d: GEO  PEP

Down to 200d:  MSFT

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:   RE

Nice looking daily chart here in this reinsurance name, consolidating up here around its 20d and not too far from mid May 52 week highs. Watching for a move above the 102 level if the  market can catch a strong bid.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  AMRS

Big time volume behind this pop yesterday in this name, as it ran up past its 50d MA for the first time since last October.  An inside day is always a possibility after a move like that, so we’ll be wary.  Ideally, we get a bit of a snapback  on the open to nibble into and watch for some follow through volume to come in.

3.)  Pullback short:  OXY

Has had a nice three-day bounce up to its 20d MA.  Last time it touched up to that spot was last week and it was rejected and followed with a 6point drop.  Will watch how the stock acts around the 81.50 area tomorrow on the open, and if it fails to clear and the market turns sour, I’ll look at this as a shorting opportunity.

4.) Traditional short:  GILD

Weak close in this name yesterday, it failed to participate with the market rally toward the end of the day and couldn’t get past 48.60.  Watching below 48.25 today in a weak market here to see if it can continue to try and fill the April gap down to the 47 area.  Wouldn’t want to be short if it finds its way above 49.20.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to John Coltraine

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report  6-5-12

SPY’s are  trading mildly lower here pre-market, after more hand wringing over uncertainty in Europe and ahead of the G7 call.  We’re back under the 128 level (and 200d) after a decent final hour move to the upside yesterday may have piqued some long side interest.  127.14 was the pivot area from yesterday afternoon, and lots of eyes will be on that level again today if we trade down there.  Yesterday, I had 127.34 as near term support, without much underneath…nothing has really changed, except 127.14 is the level now.  I’m giving this market  a lot of respect and am wary of downside pressure.    Best case scenario (like always) for bulls and long side trades would be an early spike lower that gets rejected and the market can turn green.

 

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– WPRT  ARRY  OPXT  SPPI  JASO  ISR  AMLN  GNOM  ALSK

Gapping Down — DG  SBUX  CEDC  WAG

No indication —UNFI   SHFL  LAYN  AMWD  GIII  JAZZ  NFLX

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: AUTH  GV  CBLI  ZLCS

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: FAF  WTR  PNW  CLX  AUXL  PAAS

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  NFG  DOV  MOH  TECD

GoPauseGo:  CDE  ABX  IAG  GG  AG  AEM

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): ALXN  DIS  REGN

Up to 200d: AEP  HRB

Up to 50d: COST  ANV  IAG

Up to 20d: SBUX  HUM  FAF  CMCSA

Down to 20d AGNC

Down to 50d: DLB  ARRS  D  CNP

Down to 200d: MSFT  INTC

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:   AEM

I know I highlighted this one yesterday, but I still don’t like traditional breakout looks in any other non-Gold/Silver names right now.  Truthfully, I don’t really trust gold/silver names that much, but the GDX recovered nicely yesterday afternoon and AEM is still my favorite chart in the group if it can get over $41.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  GV

Some insider buying sparked a surge in this name late in the afternoon, and now it may have its sights set on 52 weeks highs from earlier in the month.  Its a thinner name, and tricky to trade, so I’d be wary chasing early in the trading day.  Relative volume will be key for any sort of sustained move today.

3.)  Pullback long:  DLB

After a big gap up from 37.50 to 45 early in the month, the stock consolidated around that level, before breaking down last week with the rest of the market.  3 straight sharp red candles has brought the stock back down to its 50d MA and close to its old high/resistance area at $40.  Watching those two areas as pivots today in the name as potential reversal points.

4.) Traditional short:  EQIX

Will be watching this name for a short under its 50d today, after some news out of NFLX that it will be starting its own content delivery network.  This stock is extremely thin, and if it gaps too far down, will not be worth it.  However, it has held up very well lately, and any sort of negative momentum could see the name fall quickly and catch up to some weaker peers.  Honestly don’t know if the NFLX news is material relative to the name, but it may be enough to shake things up in the name to the downside.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the album Murmur

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report  6-4-12

Well, we’re not seeing any sort of panic, gap-down selling here in the pre-market after last Friday’s big-time selloff.  We’re about a point off early a.m. lows  and are now mildly into the green above Friday’s 128.16 close.  Unfortunately, I don’t see a whole lot of obvious support below in the SPY’s here.  127.34, then 124.80, 123.30 and 120 are the areas I have highlighted in case we start another free fall today.  From the longside, I think most bulls would like to see a quick, early attempt to sell off.   A trip back to the green from a failed break lower would set up some decent longs imo.   Gold/silver names were the big winners last Friday in the face of the selling…likely to see a lot of biotech names moving today after big ASCO meeting over the weekend will be putting the spotlight on many names (for a good quick read on some names, check out Adam Feurstein’s blog on thestreet.com).

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– AN  MDVN  BMY  IMGN  AUXL  GALE  SNTA  CONN  WAG

Gapping Down — DNDN  ONXX

No indication —   ESRX  CRM   NKE

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: ANTH  MVIS  NDZ  PRKR  KGC  SNTS

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: DRIV  IAG   GOLD  RGLD  CDE  AEM  DUK  NEM  WEC

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  CVS   PPO  VRSK  COO  AXP  COL  SINA  WYNN  EFX  PXP  WTI  POT  GMCR  DNR  VCLK  ABT  SIMO

GoPauseGo:  END

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):

Up to 200d: POM

Up to 50d: GG

Up to 20d:

Down to 20d RAI  FL

Down to 50d: D  MO  TOL  AMZN  TXRH  LII  MHO

Down to 200d: CTL  MSFT  INTC  IBM  HST

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

Long FB from 27.29 (1/2 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 28.29)

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  AEM

The only things really “breaking out” to the upside are gold and silver stocks.  I’m not a huge fan of playing them, but of the charts I scanned/looked at,  AEM looked pretty bullish.  Formed a rounded bottom since the beginning of the year, and actually did a decent job holding up as the rest of the sector was getting beat up.  It crossed above 40.50 double top resistance on Friday, and has some clear air above on the daily chart up to its 200d at 43.85.  Obviously will depend on how the precious metals are faring, as well as the broad market, but if gold/silver names continue to get bid, this is a stock I’ll be looking to play.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  SNTS

After a nice, high volume breakout to 52 week highs last week, the stock has held up  in a narrowing range coil here, as volume has stayed relatively high.  Pretty impressive when looking at the damage being done in most stocks.  Looking for a break out of this bull flag setup above 6.80 if there is some bounce in the markets.

3.)  Pullback long: AMZN

Peformed pretty well on Friday relative to all of the market mess.  Couldn’t really budge below a.m. lows which happened to be the important 50d Moving Average.  Won’t want to be long below there, but if it finds a way to hang on to that level as the market firms up, there could be some nice squeeze trade potential in the name.

4.) Traditional short:  COO

Stock held up very well recently holding on above its 50d MA as the market was selling off.  The stock couldn’t hold on Friday, however, and lost that Moving Average as broad market selling really increased.  If we see more waves of selling, this would seem to have some more juice to the downside as there is little in the way of support now.  The next main Moving Average area of support isn’t until the 100 day at 80.25, then comes pivot support from mid March around 77.5 and then the 200d down near 75.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of The Ramones.

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report  6-1-12

An absolute bloodbath here in the SPY’s in the premarket session, we are gapping well below the 129.55/130 support area from earlier in the month.   Early in the session we were looking lower after Chinese and Eurozone economic data.  Making it worse was an awful domestic employment number…should make for a crazy trading day.  It appears that 128.61 held as a level here in the premarket, right near the 200d Moving Average.  That will be a level to keep an eye on.  Scarily, below that there is little in the way of tangible support.   It’ll be hard not to take a couple shots from the long side after such a huge gap, but will have to be careful about doing it.  Any shorts will have to come on bounces.  A couple of general rules in play today for me due to the heightened volatilty:  1) Trade less size 2) don’t add to losing positions 3) avoid chasing candles (both up and down).

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– VRA  RLD

Gapping Down —  OVTI

No indication —   ESL  ASNA  SPLK  FLS  ONTY  PNSN  GHM

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: THLD  GEVO  SNTA  ETAK  ARAY  VRNM  JBLU

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: FRX  MRH  ALK  LGF  PENN  EXPE  DIS  FCN  FRAN

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  HDB  CNH  WMS  NFLX  SHLD  CLF  HOS  GBX  MELI  GTLS  EA  GMCR

GoPauseGo:  TAST

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):

Up to 200d: CIEN

Up to 50d: COST  BYI  GPC  HBI  CMG

Up to 20d: CMCSA  CBS  BLL  ADI  CCI  WFC  AMGN

Down to 20d

Down to 50d: ECL  CL  ADM  BMRN  NRGY

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

Long WYNN from 105.53

Long FB from 27.29

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long: MRH//FRAN

Two different style breakout plays on my radar today.  One is at highs, another is coming out of a steep pullback.  MRH had a nice day yesterday as it participated in the big IYR reversal , and this daily chart looks very nice here as it now is pushing toward 52 week highs.  21 is a big level, and will look to for a trigger above IF we see market strength across the board.  FRAN  had pulled back hard here toward the beginning of the month, dropping from 32 down to 22, but found some support there and built a decent base as it traded sideways around the 22 figure for a couple of weeks.   It was able to crack through there yesterday to the upside on good relative volume and now looks like it can try to claw back some of the drop from earlier in the month.  Trigger is above 23.75 on good relative volume.  Again, all long strategies today depend on some overall market strength and the ability of the SPY’s to hold that key 129.55/130 area.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  ARAY

Not overly excited to play this one today, but its on my radar as it put in a nice day yesterday, closing near highs on good relative volume.  Above those highs would represent a multi-week range break to the upside, and potentially a run back toward its 50d near 6.96.  Will keep one eye on it today, but the relative volume must be showing us something in order to participate.

3.)  Pullback short:  AMGN

Noticed this stock after it left upside wicks on consecutive days at its 20d near the $70 mark.  The daily chart is very strong, and as such I won’t play this if it is in the green today, but watching that 20d prove to be resistance two days in a row, I’ll be watching for a reversal move today through yesterday’s a.m. lows of $69.  This obviously plays out much better if the markets are across the board weak (capt. obvious).

4.) Traditional short:  NFLX

Just looking like a real weak dog here in this market.  No bounce really at all yesterday with the market, this stock looks like it will be taking out late 2011 lows.  The challenge today will likely be getting fills without chasing, since it looks like we will be gapping lower.  I’d ideally like to wait out the open to see if we can sell into a bounce attempt.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Afghan Whigs

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-31-12

We’ve seen the SPY’s go from a decent gap higher down into the red here in the pre-market after GDP and jobs data were released.  The market was very heavy yesterday, closing on lows and felt much like the action earlier in the month.  131.49 was yesterday’s lows (around 131.30 in afterhours), and bulls would like to see that level hold.  As I mentioned yesterday, I just don’t know how much support there will be below there, and would set up a situation where the market gets pulled like a magnet down to a retest of the 129.55/130 area.

 

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– ZUMZ CIEN GNRC  MVIS  LEAP TJX

Gapping Down —  LGF  CHTP  JOY BMRN FFIV

No indication —  TLYS  TIVO

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: NCIT  NEON  LMOS  AMPE

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: AAPL  LF  ASNA  TFM

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  DEI  RIG  CTSH  SXCI  CBI  CB  KBR  WAG  UIS   ROSE  CTCT  FLR  CLP  COV  HPT  LINTA  EQY  SLB  TCO  RKT  CLB  TRV

GoPauseGo:  MDCO  WWWW  COST  CMG   SZYM  IN  MBI  BONT

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):

Up to 200d: SLM  HRB  VSH

Up to 50d: N  HBI  ENS

Up to 20d: CF  FRX

Down to 20d AEO

Down to 50d: FE  SGEN  ECA

Down to 200d:  ACN  DD  LINTA

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

Long WYNN from 105.53

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:WWWW

Looked ready to breakout after a strong day Tuesday, it sat back yesterday as the market sold off, and traded in a tight range here underneath 52 week highs.  Watching today for a move above 16.30 for a long trigger w/ an eye on relative volume.  Below 15.60 will ignore for now.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  AMPE

Nice pop into the close yesterday on some decent relative volume.  has built a decent base down here near lows, never really able to crack below 2.50 after several tries.  Seeing some European patent news hit the wires this morning.  Not sure if that was the reason for the pop yesterday, but will watch for some follow through today.  Below 3.00 will ignore/exit.

3.)  Pullback short:HBI

Still feel like this market is presenting that its safer to sell pops rather than buy dips right now.  HBI is a name that has had nice run of late, bouncing from 24.64 up to its 50d here around 27.90, where it closed yesterday.  I won’t be selling the name if it manages to trade above there, but may look to enter a short if it trades back below that level for a mean reversion trade…especially if the market is weak.

4.) Traditional short: TCO

Real Estate names were some of the last names to hold up very well as the market was rolling over.  However, the bullish action has been somewhat muted during the last market mini-rally off lows and now many of those names appear to be rolling down out of bearish flag formations.  TCO fits the bill and I’ll be watching for a short through 72.50 if the market and the sector continue to show weakness.  Will have to be wary of any sort of sector wide bounce though, so I won’t be short if the stock or sector manages to trade green.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of LCD Soundsystem

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-30-12

Sizeable gap down this a.m in the SPY’s on, you guessed it, worries over Spain and Europe.  Its no fun to have to navigate these Euro headlines, but it is what it is.  We had staged a nice bounce recently off the 130 pivot lows in the SPY’s, so some give back shouldn’t be unexpected or overly worrisome for bulls.  In fact, it is on gap down days like this, where we can really see what this latest rally is made of…a gap fill would be pretty impressive.   131.78 are lows we made last Friday, I’d watch that area as a first line of defense if we crack lower on the open.  Below there, its a little harder to pick real support…I suppose 131.42 lows from last Thursday could be monitored.  If we start to trade below those levels, however, I think we start to get pulled back like a magnet for a retest of the 130 area.

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– FORM  TFM  OSIR  MON  DGIT  NEON

Gapping Down —RIMM  PWRD  SURG  ITRN  DRYS  CPRT

No indication —  ALNY  JOSB  HBI  YGE  FINL  BAH  TEA  PEG

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: IN  HW  AUTH  RMBS  OTT  MVIS  SNTS  XOMA  SNSS  DATE

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: NTES  PENN  SLXP  CVS  LKQ  EQIX    LII  TWTC  DSW  BBBY  SYNC  SWI  MLNX  LVS  WYNN  SFLY

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  CALL  STX  BAX  TEVA  RATE  MHP  WDC

GoPauseGo:  CVH

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): GEO

Up to 200d: UHS  LM  MPC  HRB

Up to 50d: CMCSK  FR  GE  GT  DISCA  CSTR  HBI  SLE  FCS  M  CBS  A  DGX

Up to 20d: SYK  PFG  BRY  BLL  APH  ADI  SFLY  MCO  SIMO

Down to 20d

Down to 50d:

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

Long WYNN from 105.53

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long: PENN

Casino name has been coiling up here underneath 52 week highs for the better part of the month, and could get a pop if it is able to break out convincingly past the46/46.50 area.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long: HW

Nice move out to 52 week highs yesterday on heavy relative volume.    Follow through may be tough today, especially as the market is gapping down, but its worth watching today to see if it gets some follow through.  Rather than chase it on the open, may look for a pullback toward 4.50 on the open for an entry.

3.)  Pullback short:  CSTR // M

Again, not many long pullback ideas out there are interesting to me, as they would have had to have been pulling back as the market was trying to bounce off near term lows, which is a red flag.  CSTR and M look like a decent r/r short ideas to sell into strenghth, however, as they both have bounced sharply up to their 50d Moving Averages.  Unfortunately, it looks as though we will be gapping down quite a bit today, so getting an entry near those averages may be tough.  I won’t chase either on a gap down, but if they find a way to pop up early in the session, I’ll consider a fade.  If they are bumping up toward those areas later in the session, I’ll likely ignore them both.

4.) Traditional short: MHP

Ugly day yesterday, as it tried to gap higher, and was sold off early, filling the gap.  Couldn’t recover later with the rest of the market, and wound up closing on lows.  Looking at the daily chart, it hasn’t been able to bounce materially off that 200d with the market and now it looks like it will lose that support level.  Not much in the way of support below.  44.40 is the target trigger area, and a move below May pivot lows of 44 would be confirmation.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  Grateful Dead

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-29-12

Getting a decent gap up here in the SPY’s after the long weekend, though its hard to pinpoint any specific news.  No disaster news seems to be enough of a reason.    We did bounce some last week off recent lows, but its hard to get too excited, as sellers still seem as though the are ready to step in and sell into strength.    To the upside we have last Tuesday’s high of 133.23 looming as resistance, as well as the 20d above there at 134.61.    Feels to me like bulls and better do a good job holding us in the green today, or else it sets a bad tone for the week, and a potential test of the recent pivot lows down near 130.  A hold of this gap and a close above the 133.23 area would do the opposite, giving bulls something to hang their hat on.    Will be keeping an eye out for sector rotation/indicators as we start the week, in case the overall action can’t pick a side.

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up–  BPOP  WAVX

Gapping Down — VRTX  HMPR

No indication —  MY  FMCN  SAFM

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: REED  AQ  TCX  PACB  KV.A

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: AMLN  EAT  NWL WEC  MPC  ABT   DECK  BODY  ALXN

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: LO  MENT  GOOG  OVTI  ACN

GoPauseGo:  DF

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):

50–>200d MA Cross:

Bearish: NUAN  BRY  MBI  GPN  NYX  CR  DRQ  JNJ  SBGI  EPAY  PLCE  FNGN  ICFI  RBA  STLD  R  INT  NDAQ  LEG  MCHP  OTEX  LAZ

Bullish: ZAGG  ECPG

Up to 200d: RGLD  UTHR   ENDP

Up to 50d: NKE  PRGO  AES  KNX   URBN  DISCK

Up to 20d: WWW MJN  SLAB  AFG  FNGN

Down to 20d

Down to 50d: ACGL  KFT

Down to 200d: BA  DD

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  ALXN

Some wild, net bullish action last week has this biotech (leading sector) name back up near 52-week high $95 pivot area.  If we get some strength across the market, and the biotech sector continues to lead, I’ll be looking for this to make a run at the magical $100 level.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  ARNA

Don’t see many charts in the small cap/sub $10 that really have my interest on the open, and I’ll likely stay away unless I see some abnormal trading/volume in some names on the open.  Once stock that does have me interested here is ARNA.  Been trading in a pretty tight range the last few days, leaving some downside wicks.  Has some premarket interest and volume here today gapping higher after paying down some debt.  Not sure its enough to spark the stock, but if it can pullback and/or consolidate on the open with ++ relative volume, I’ll watch for a mid-morning breakout.

3.)  Pullback short: RGLD

Don’t see many names that I like as pullback longs after last week’s bullish action…instead there are more names that have bounced up into resistance that look like pullback shorts.  RGLD is one that has bounced up with other miners nicely from lows and is now bumping into its 200d here after putting in a doji candle on Friday signalling a possible reversal.    Keeping an eye on the GDX ETF for a signal…weakness there and I think RGLD looks like a nice r/r short today through 68.25 Friday a.m. lows.

4.) Traditional short:  LO

Heavy volume sell off on Friday down to recent range low support just under 125 after failing to clear its 20d on recent bounce attempt.  Not much support below on the daily chart here through last week’s lows.  Looks like a good r/r short if the market is in sell mode today.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Black Joe Lewis & the Honeybears

 

The Early Bird Report

No EBR for today, May 25, as I am out of the office.  Enjoy the long weekend.

The Early Bird Report