The Equities Room Blog

Early Bird Report 1-31-12

Market is gapping up a bit here (7:30 a.m CT), after bulls did a nice job yesterday, stepping in and buying stocks after a gap lower and some mornings weakness.  We wound up closing near highs yesterday, just barely climbing our way back into the bullish month long rising channel…and at current premkt SPY prices, we are firmly back.    We didn’t quite hit our 20d MA in the SPY…we’ll keep an eye on that for some downside support going forward, as well as yesterday’s pivot low of 130.06.   On the earnings front, UPS and LLY are rising in the premkt, as well as X even after what appeared to be a miss.   RSH is the sad sack earnings story this morning, down almost 30% after margin pressure caused a big EPS miss.  XOM and ADM are a couple of other widely held names trading lower in early action.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– HOLX  RTEC  MAT  HP  LLY   X  MCP  UPS  MCK  PRXL  TGI  MHP  PAL

Gapping Down —  RSH  XOM ALGN  PFE  RCII  ICUI  PCL  AEIS   ADM  BIIB  AVY  KLIC

No indication — SLG   HRS  DHR  TYC  CIT  PCH    OSK  TECH  LXK  LLL  AXE  ITW

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: SIGA  PIP  SPEX  GNOM  GTAT  NGSX  FUEL  CCIH  MELA  AFFY  YMI  VG  CDTI  NNBR  SKH

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts: ROVI  RBC  WSM  NKE  ABD  INVN  ATU  DELL  IACI  MON  SBUX  COO  END

Weak closes/weak chart: ACXM  FIO VRTX  WLP  BG  QCOR  MDU  LEG  CTRP

Trading up to MA resistance:

20d: TF  ISRG

50d: AEO  TSLA  ORCL  CME

200d:

Trading down to MA support:

200d:

50d: AMTD  XEL

2od: TOL  SREV  AVP  HRB  LXK  PAYX  COL

GoPauseGo Candidates: BIDU  ARQL  RPTP  WBMD  P  BGC  LNG  SYNA  TSRA  SIVB

Current Positions in our Ditto Traded Mirrored Swing Account:

Long VPHM from 29.58  (1/2 of original position…sold 1/2 at 30.80)

Long HEK from 5.15

Long ROVI from 30.85 (1/2 of original position…sold 1/2 at 32.20)

Long ATHN from 58.86

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long: P

What stuck out most to me is the tight inside day yesterday after the big surge into the close on Friday….the crazy tight range yesterday was 13.47-13.76. I will watch it through yesterday’s highs for a possible entry, as well as through Friday’s high of $14, which would represent a broader range break.    The nice thing about this trade is the relatively low risk…I won’t be in below yesterday’s low of 13.47.

2.) Traditional short:  BG

This stock has been a real dog lately…it wasn’t able to break a bearish channel this month during a strong market tape, and now is breaking down below it.  It is trading underneath a multi-month TrendLine, all of its relevant Moving Averages, and could even see some more weakness on the heels of poor earnings from peer ADM.   Will eye entries on a move through yesterday’s low of 57.12 if possible.    Would only want to be short this name today if it stays red… won’t want to risk a sharp reversal if it the market is strong and this manages to go green.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum:   GNOM

I’m sort of torn on this one.  The elevated volume levels in the name certainly have me interested.  The close yesterday makes me a bit nervous, however.   The 3.00 level was a battleground in the name Friday and midday yesterday, as buyers finally took out a large seller at that level.  I would be a little more comfortable buying it today if would have been able to close above that level.  Instead, it limped back through there into the close, suggesting that many of the buyers were retail and momentum traders, rather than institutional.    I’ll be looking to get back in the name if it can get above that 3.00 level again, and most importantly, if it continues to see the elevated volume.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of  The Pharcyde

The Early Bird Report

Trader Education

Early Bird Report 1-30-12

Seeing a pretty significant gap lower this morning, after news from Europe that there was no deal forged between Greece and private creditors.    Currently, SPY  is trading arround 130.75, which is below the support line of  its tight rising channel, which also happens to be its 10d MA, at 131.18.   The open will certainly will be an opportunity for the buyers to step back in (as they done quite well since the 12/20 start to this rising trend.  If we can’t fill the gap higher back into the channel, support levels include  130.60 (Tuesday pivot low), and 129.49  (20d MA &  10/27 pivot high).  Not many earnings plays this morning to start the week,  smaller cap momentum traders will have their eyes certain social media related stocks that jumped late Friday in relation to Facebook announcing details regarding their IPO.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  AMLN  ALKS  REGN  LCC  GTXI  MNTA  LNG  STEM  GTXI

Gapping Down — PMC  SIFY

No indication — GCI

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: DANG  RENN  PNSN  ONTY  URZ  BONT  KGN  QPSA  DATE GTAT JKS  CDXS  SIGA  XIDE  SQNS  TAOM  TUDO  IL  SKH  SUNH   SRZ

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts: $QIHU  $CSTR  $DNDN  $NTES  $BIDU  $LNKD  $PWRD $LPS $EXPE  $YOKU $P $ROVI

Weak closes/weak chart: ACGL  PNK  ARBA  SXCI  MO  PFE  LO

Trading up to  MA resistance:

20d: PMC  MA

50d: DDS  ANF  AEM  TSLA  IART

200d: SLB  GG

Trading down to MA support:

200d: D

50d: DUK  NSC  AEP

2od: ADP  RYN  LEA  MCHP  XOM  GD  LMT  KEX

GoPauseGo Candidates: ATHN  URI  GHL  CNW  (long) MNTA BKS (short)

Moving Average Crosses 50/200d: Bullish:  SPY  RJF  SHLM  MRVL  BLK  MLM  ZEUS  TRN  SMTC  FDX  SANM  DE  DF  AUXL  CAT  CBE  FISV  EPAY  GD  FLS  VRX  OMC  ASNA  MTD  BLDR

Bearish:  RGC  TSO  TW

20/50d Crosses: Bullish: VECO CREE   SVN  UHS  CVLT  NDAQ  AGEN  ARUN  ATHN  JOY  BIDU  CTRP  EGHT  RUE  SLB  CALX

Bearish:  URBN  RAX  PPC  AEE ZIGO  RAI

Current Positions in our Ditto Traded Mirrored Swing Account:

Long VPHM from 29.58  (1/2 of original position…sold 1/2 at 30.80)

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long: ATHN

Stock looks attractive for a number of reasons.  First, it is clearing a 4 month downward TrendLine.  Second, its 20d Moving Average is pushing up for a bullish move over its 50d.  Finally, it is setting up a GoPauseGo scenario, as it jumped out of consolidation on Thursday, and followed it up with an inside day on Friday.  Would look to be a buyer above Thursdays high of 58.78, with stops below Friday’s middaylow of 58.   For a longer horizon trade, stops can be put down at 56.10 (Thursday’s low) or 56.78 (10d Moving Average).

2.) Traditional short:  SLB

Not because I don’t think it can go higher.  It absolutely might.  But the 76.50/77.50 area represents an area that held MANY times from Oct. thru early Dec.  76.98 happens to be its 200d Moving Average, and it couldn’t quite close above there two straight days now.    If the stock clears 77.50, I would absolutely be out of any shorts, but if there is sector/market weakness this stock could see some selling as it bumps into this overhead resistance.

3.)  Small cap or sub $10 momentum:  GTAT

I really don’t know what the long term prospects of the solar industry are.  What I do know, is that there has been a lot of buying in those names lately, and it is putting pressure on the short sellers.  GTAT is really coiling here, and if the group catches a bid to start the week, I think it could see a very powerful move through the 8.82 pivot high area.  Would make sure to monitor the sector as a whole if trading this stock because they all tend to move together.  Conservative stops should be placed under Thursday’s closing range lows of 8.52.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of  Jimi Hendrix

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 1-27-12

Another slew of earnings this morning, with notable names gapping  higher including KLAC AMGN  & MO, while SBUX  PG &  F are among the widely held stocks gapping lower.    Markets turned on the sell switch yesterday, and after a mild gap up and initial move higher on the bell, methodically pulled the SPY‘s down the rest of the day.  At the end of the day, the selling was very orderly, and we still remain in our extremely bullish channel higher we’ve seen all month. After not earlier not showing much of a gap either way, the market is indicating  lower now after some weak GDP data.  It’ll be interesting to see how anxious dip (well, not really much of a dip, but let’s call it a pullback) buyers are today, as it appears we may look to test some support.     To the downside, we’ll be watching for support  at 131.36 (yesterday’s low..appears already broken here premkt).  131-131.10 area is the bottom of our recent rising channel, and 130.60/130.75 represent lows from Tuesday and Wednesday.  To the upside, yesterday’s high of 133.40 and 134.20 (rising channel top) are the first levels of resistance.  As its Friday, I’ll always be looking for most of my actionable trades early, before the choppy afternoon session where mean reversion programs battle it out with traders/investors trying to position themselves going into the weekend.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– AMGN  EMN  INFA  ARBA  RMD  CPHD  QLGC  KLAC  ELX  RIG  STX  NWL  MO  JBHT VRSN

Gapping Down — SBUX RVBD  JNPR  CRUS  DV  CB  BVSN  SYNA  TNAV  RHI  MCRL  DK  ABFS  F  PG  HON  WCRX  CVX   MRVL  ABAX

No indication — LSCC  SGEN  MSCC  DLLR   OCLR  TSRA  SCSC  ESIO  DLPH  VPRT  RMBS  CPWR  MATW  GDOT  WERN  SXL  SIVB  IMGN  GHM  DHI  IDXX  LM  D

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: CIGX  GERN  ASTM  STEM  OXGN  HDSN  SUNH  ENZN  SPRT  PRMW  ROYL

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts: AMLN  ATHN  HCP  CACI  SNA  EMN  TRMB  MMM  POT  HSC

Weak closes/weak chart: SRCL  SIVB  CRK  HGG  CPX  GRPN  CJES  FRX  IACI  XEC  PTEN

Trading up to  MA resistance:

20d: ED  MO  LINE

50d: PETD  FSP  LPS

200d: FOSL  PRGS  PSSI  PRE  AON  PANL

Trading down to MA support:

200d: GOOG  RKT  NOC  UA

50d: ARG  K  ZION  TZOO  JWN  T  GBX  OCR  LLY

2od: VRX   INVN  BSFT  CTXS  TRN  RSH  ROK  NUAN  TRI  HIG  ORLY  TOL  KMX

GoPauseGo Candidates: ISRG  AGU  NUS  B  SNA (long) FIO (short)

Current Positions in our Ditto Traded Mirrored Swing Account:

Long VPHM from 29.58  (1/2 of original position…sold 1/2 at 30.80)

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long: POT

I’m guessing with the futures gapping lower, we may see some widely held stocks gap a bit lower and have some volatile action on the open.  I will be keeping a close eye on POT if this is the case, as I thought yesterday’s post-earnings was pretty constructive in a lousy tape.  The stock shrugged off an early gap lower an was able to run to the top of a recent range on the daily chart.   I think we’ll be able to tell early on if institutions are coming into the name again today, and will look to trade this stock long either on a large opening range drive lower, or on a move from red to green.  Will be keeping all trades in this name light and stops tight.

2.) Traditional short: IACI

Not very familiar trading this stock, but it has had a narrowing wedge formation for a while now and closed extremely weak yesterday, underneath its 50d MA.  Not sure how easy it will be to get any short without chasing if the market opens up very weak, but I’ll look for it to show continued weakness today IF the market really starts to sell off.  I really have no interest in being short this name if the market is bouncing AT ALL (I will be looking to be long), since the stock has sold off a bit  the last two days and could bounce with the market.  I just think that if the selling gets aggressive today, this stock could be vulnerable.  Sorry for the cloudy commentary here, but I had a hard time wrapping my head around short trades today.

3.)  Small cap or sub $10 momentum:  ENZN

Biotech name caught a bid yesterday, running out of a tight weekly range  and showed signs that it might want to break out of a longer  multi-month range.   It wound up settling right at early December range/pivot highs, which also happen to be the same spot as its 100d Moving Average.  Yesterday was a good day for beaten up biotech names, so we will be wary of it being a one and done type trade, but the risk/reward down here is pretty good.   Won’t be involved below 6.80, may look to add on an opening range snapback under 7.00, however.  Above 7.15 triggers a broader breakout trade.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of The Pixies

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 1-26-12

Just a ton of earnings overnight and this morning, with large gaps both up and down.  CAT NFLX the headline grabbers to the upside, with SNDK POT a couple of the notable losers (at least in the premarket).  After the FOMC meeting, we saw a really nice rally during the last half of the day, with gold/silver names really outperforming as some form of QE3 seems likely.   From a neutral/daytrading stance, the gap up in the market has me cautious, as the SPY is approaching the top of its rising channel, and will likely make for a difficult tape to initiate any longs….and I’m just not ready to short this market right now.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– NFLX   MLNX  RJET  CAT TER  URI  LSI  GHL  AN ACAT  COV  TWC  WCC  EQT  ZMH  CNX  MMM  JBLU  UAL

Gapping Down — SNDK  CTXS  CVD  LRCX  MIPS  EFSC  MUR  PCP  POT  CRR  ETFC  VAR  UA  DEST  ETN  MKC  CL  T  BMY  TZOO  CY  MWW

No indication — OI  HXL  RLI  CTRN  JEC  MEOH  QSII  CSH  CCMP  BLL  ABC  MOH  BAX  PSSI  RTN  ESI  MJN  CELG  HSC   UTEK

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: XG  FUEL  AUMN  ATPG  SD  GENE  SQNS  AVL  ZQK  WG  NG  HGSI  SVM  UCTT  RTK  USCR  RLD

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts: NKA  MCP  TCK  YNDX  LVLT  SWC  UIS  X  ACM  SU  BG  BEAM  SSRI  NFX  BBG  HSC  COST  TZOO

Weak closes/weak chart: ATVI  COP  JWN  SPPI  KFY  ABH  PWRD

Trading up to  MA resistance:

20d: PLCE  PM

50d: CHK  YNDX  GG  HITK  AEO  BG  DTV

200d: JLL FCS  NCR  TCK  PSSI  CSTR  WFT  CLF  SU  ROC  WLL  MTW

Trading down to MA support:

200d: ATVI  MSI

50d: CYOU

2od: MCHP  M

GoPauseGo Candidates: LZB  PTEN  FNSR  JDSU  PVH   SMTC

Current Positions in our Ditto Traded Mirrored Swing Account:

Long VPHM from 29.58  (1/2 of original position…sold 1/2 at 30.80)

Long ATPG from 7.75

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  BMY//NKA

Two long ideas today.  The first is BMY.  The company announced results this morning, and after an initial reaction lower, is now trading green in the premarket.   The stock was an excellent performer in the last half of 2011, but has sold off consistently so far in 2012 (like many of the defensive names of 2011).  Now that the earnings are out of the way, I’m looking for a bounce in the name as dip buyers come in.  Hopefully the move into the green in the premarket doesn’t go too far and it doesn’t gap up too high.  I would ideally like to get some between yesterday’s 32.70 close and 33, but not sure that will happen.  Won’t chase/initiate above 331.18 during the open of trade today, and will likely leave the trade alone all together if the market is in sell mode or the stock moves back in the red.

NKA is a smaller, thinner name, and one the will rely on the continued oversold bounce in the nat gas sector.  It did a nice job yesterday clearing out of a mulit-month trading range, and it did so on ++ volume.  Will watch the name for more follow up volume/price action today if things are holding up in the sector and the market.    Won’t be in the trade below $10, but I may look to add some down there if it does happen to pullback and hold that level.

2.) Traditional short:  PLCE

I fully respect the market, and won’t be shorting this one if it is able to clear the 51.50 area today and/or the market continues to melt higher.  That said, during a very bullish tape yesterday, this name had a real unconvincing move through its 20d and further into the gap fill area after its downward guidance announcement early in the month.  It feels as though to me that the stock might be tiring a bit here at the 20d after said bounce, and if the market sells off today, I’ll look to enter a short through 50.60.

3.)  Small cap or sub $10 momentum:  SVM

This stock has two potential catalysts driving it this morning.  First of all, the sharp spike in gold/silver we saw yesterday after the FOMC meeting, which contributed to the stock climbing above its 50d and out of a sideways trading range.  Second, the company announced drilling results this morning from a mine in China.  The news component will make the trade tricky, but also potentially juicy.  Wouldn’t touch the stock if it goes red, but may try to jump on some not too far from yesterrday’s highs.  I do see it gapping up already to around 7.75, so entries may be difficult.  Don’t  chase, especially on the open, so if it gets away too fast, I’d recommend waiting for a pullback.

NOTE: It’s tricky to highlight a small cap idea each day,  so many times the trigger comes down to whether the stock in question is getting any push in relative volume…which is really the biggest catalyst when trading them…and can often be duds for that day, only to run later that week.  I  put all of the ones on my watchlist into a filter, and watch them for volume (actually I do this for each group of stocks I break down each morning).  I will also set alerts in the names, which will still go off the next day or week if/when the small caps finally take off with the volume

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music my good friend (and newly engaged) Jackson Rohm…congrats buddy.

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 1-25-12

Blowout earnings from AAPL are getting most of the headlines, but it is interesting to see the market gapping a bit lower as we head into the trading day.  We are still riding a steep upward channel in the SPY, as the market digests earnings season.  At some point, I imagine this channel gets tested hard one way or another, but until it does, we will continue to try and respect the trend and be picky with individual setups.    We have an FOMC meeting today, so I’d imagine the action to slow up considerably in advance as traders/investors wait to see and hear what Ben has to say.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  AAPL   NUAN  CRSU  TQNT  CA  TSS    ILMN  TXT  LCC  SWFT  SLAB  DAL  ABT  COP  LIFE  TPX

Gapping Down —  FIO  RKT  MRCY  AMD  YHOO  NSC  WPZ  WSTL   PII  WLP  SYK  GLW  RES  BA  MOLX  ATI  GWW  ERIC REDF  ADP

No indication —  SYK  ROK  MSI  OXY  MWV  SO   ROL  LCRY

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: PACB  HILL  PSUN  CRIS  CDXS  BTX  ORN  PNX  CPST  HDSN

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts: LAMR  WPRT  TRMB  DHI  ADSK  X  DHX  KRA  DMND  GTI  WTW  DLTR  AGCO  WYNN

Weak closes/weak chart: TE  BBG  VR  MJN  UNH  CEG  MYL

Trading up to  MA resistance:

20d: CHK CVX  PLCE  HITK  TIF  URBN

50d: HAS  UA  GT  ANN

200d: HCA  FIS  SRCL  CNW  TDC  QSFT

Trading down to MA support:

200d: CNI  TXRH

50d: CPNO  IPXL  GOLD  CAH

2od: VRTX  WCRX  MKC  AXP  SLE

GoPauseGo Candidates: CHK  EQT  NFX

Current Positions in our Ditto Traded Mirrored Swing Account:

Long VPHM from 29.58  (1/2 of original position…sold 1/2 at 30.80)

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  WYNN

Not normally my favorite stock to trade, but I like the way this one is setting up in terms of its risk/reward parameters and setup clarity.  This stock clearly has had difficulty rallying with the rest of the market recently, and amongst its peers has been the worst performer.   However,  this month we saw it clear a six month declining Trend Line and move up past its 50d Moving Average for the first time since mid September.  Since then it has consolidated nicely, and now after yesterday’s strong close is looking like it wants to put in another leg higher.   Will watch for a trigger over 119.57 for an entry, but we’ll also have one eye on the broad market  to make sure there is enough overall strength to support a breakout move like this.  Would expect this to potentially have some nasty action around this breakout point, so it may be a good idea to hold off on any large positions until it can retest the area.  Wouldn’t want to be involved in the trade below 117.50.

2.) Traditional short:  HITK

Won’t give this much room to go against me, but this former high flying stock stuck out to me as its 20d is now crossing its 50d to the downside.   Its price got hit very hard on 1/10, after some FDA news approving a competitor’s generic drug.  The stock has bounced quite a bit since then,  jumping from intraday 1/10 lows of 32.89 back up into resistance here.  Its 50d is 38.40 and its 20d is 38.19…I will be watching the stock to see how it acts if it trades up there again today.  Also, if the market is weak today, I’ll watch for a trigger below 37.25, since it has left a couple of wicks up at its 50d recently and may just run out of gas in a selling tape.

3.)  Small cap or sub $10 momentum:  CDXS

This is a rather thinly traded name, so if that is not your thing, I’d avoid the name.   However, I watched the stock close nicely yesterday as it threatens a monthly range break out of a consolidation.  Since a big pop off lows in early December, it is held its 50d Moving Average very well, and now looks to move out away from it.  Watching for a high relative volume move out past yesterday’s highs of 5.59, or even buying some on a mild pullback above 5.40 if it does so on the open.  Wouldn’t be involved in the trade below yesterday’s opening range low of 5.27.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of Public Enemy

The Early Bird Report

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 1-19-12

Just a day after we saw across the board selling into a gap higher in the market, we saw mirror image buying across the board yesterday, pushing the SPY above Tuesdays gap highs.  GS set the tone early, running up hard at the bell after earnings, while the entire semiconductor space rallied hard as well.  More upbeat earnings in both those sectors with MS/BAC indicating higher in financials and XLNX in semi-land.  Joining them is FFIV in the cloud space, and it’ll be important to watch peers such as  VMW/CRM/EQIX today to see if they join the party.   Saw a bit of a recovery in the energy sector yesterday as well, and we’ll be watching to see if it continues today.  The general tone in the market continues to be very friendly as we ride this upward channel.    It has been nice to be able to watch stocks actually follow through for a change, but as we reach the upward band of the channel (around 132), it will be important to use some caution on the long side.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  UNH   EBAY  XLNX  FFIV  EGHT  BAC  MS  BBT  WBMD  NTCT  COL  UNP   SCON  GMT  PLXS

Gapping Down —  SANM  NVEC  JCI

No indication —  BLK  LUV

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: EXH NOA  DVR  KERX  PGNX  MU  TQNT  GMXR  MNI  SPF  EMAN  ATPG  MTG  

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts:

Top half of year range:    GEOI  SLAB  N  JBL  SNDK  XRAY  NKE  FEIC  KLAC  FTK  LII  GOOG  WPRT CAKE  LKQX  OII OPTR

Bottom half of year range:  YOKU  DGIT  VRTX TRW  P  GMCR  FLIR  VECO  RBCN  IDCC  WHR  HES  CROX  LVLT

Weak closes/weak chart: MCK  CPHD  DTV  GDI  APOL  DV  PANL  COO  GLNG  LQDT

Trading up to  MA resistance:

20d: ARCO  PSMT

50d: RIG  GPS  CREE  TDC  AMZN  SLB  SGI

200d: CY  PFG  ADTN  GGG  GPS  OI  LNCR  CIT  HTZ  SPW  LH  SRCL

Trading down to MA support:

200d: PMC  NEM  ACOR

50d: PEP  PANL  CERN  BWLD  GDI

2od: GBX  ELN  VRSN

GoPauseGo Candidates: ALXN   FLO  GMCR

Current Positions in our Ditto Traded Mirrored Swing Account:

Long VPHM from 29.58  (1/2 of original position…sold 1/2 at 30.80)

Long UPL from 25.04

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  SLAB // GMT

This one had a huge rally yesterday along with the rest of the semiconductor space, bouncing off its 50d MA and running up to the top of its multi-month sideways channel.    I think that the earnings beat from XLNX could be another catalyst for the name and the sector today, and will be watching SLAB for a breakout move above 45.  I do think that you have to be careful here and with the space in general, as the move yesterday was very steep.   It could very well be the case where SLAB has a pause day up here, and could also be vulnerable to broad market weakness.   Might be a good idea to wait out the open to see how things shake out, but that depends on your risk tolerance.  If the stock trades into the green right away, I’d use a green–> red move as a stop level…if it pulls back right away on the open, I’d look to see how 44 acts as support as this was where it took off from yesterday midday after its morning pop.

Noticed GMT had a nice earnings beat  this morning, while  rail name UNP is also gapping up big after their numbers.   Will look to try and buy some on the open without chasing too much, as the stock is sitting just under 52 week highs after yesterday.   As an earnings play, I will be wary and out of the stock on any move into the red as there is the chance I am misinterpreting the earnings release.

2.) Traditional short: GPS

It has not paid to be short this market since the New Year.  As always, my short ideas usually don’t trigger unless we are seeing a broad market selloff, so luckily I haven’t triggered many shorts so far this year at all.  One that I will watch today in case we see weakness, is GPS. It popped back up yesterday right to its Downward Trend Line, as well as just underneath its 50/200d Moving Averages (18.72/18.77).    If the stock cannot trade above there, or turns green/red back through those averages as the market is selling off, I may look to initiate a short there for a move back down to the 18.00 level.  If it trades above the Moving Averages, I’ll leave it alone.  A low risk (and admittedly lower reward) short idea, but it just feels too dangerous to be shorting right now (LOL, that’s probably your best cue to get short).

3.)  Small cap or sub $10 momentum: SPF

SPF — I’ll admit, I think that the housing sector is getting a little bit ahead of its skis right now.  However, this chart pattern in SPF is too good to pass up in this type of market and I’m not going to try and time/predict the end of the rally in housing stocks.  Big volume yesterday as the stock put in a bullish engulfing candle to the top of its recent consolidation after a huge 4 day run to start the year.   The trigger for entry is above 4.20, or if you’d like to wait out the open and see if the stock pulls back a bit, around 4.05/4.10.    I will avoid the stock below 4.00, and I would also let go of any longs if it happens to go green–>red at any point today.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of  Of Montreal

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 1-17-12

After another long weekend, we now enter the first big week of Earnings Season with a large gap up across the indices.  Many big names will be reporting, and in my mind, we’ll likely continue to see stocks move more independently, rather than hyper-correlate to the larger indices.  I’ll be interested to see if some select oil/gas names continue to get crushed as they did last week, or if they can catch a bid.   Large cap financials should be interesting as well, with Citi and Wells Fargo reporting this morning.  To start the week, I feel that the best shorts will come from stocks running into technical resistance, rather than trying to pick a top in strong names or initiate shorts in names at 52 week lows.   I just don’t see any fear in the market right now, although I of course acknowledge that could change.  From the long side, I do think that some relative strength names could benefit, and really rally  off of a broad based market move higher, as traders/investors look to identify the “new leaders”.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– TSLA  CHKP  KUTV  WFC   VVUS   FRX  AEPI

Gapping Down — WLT  CCL  RCL  MDVN  TTWO  C

No indication — RRD  EDU  FCFS   AKRX   CPWR

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: MERU   MY  MELA  TSPT  OEH  DVR  UFI  RAM  CMED  ACAS 

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts: POT  WFM  VPHM  MO  SODA  ARO  TWC  CMG  TZOO  HUM  SXC  SE  HTS

Weak closes/weak chart: BMS   SKUL  BRY  AVY   EXC  RRD  ROSE  ALTR  ANF

Trading up to  MA resistance:

20d: TDC  MLHR  NTES  FTNT  BMC  CNQR

200d: DOX  SRCL  CIT  APH  EQY  ARRS  CMA

Trading down to MA support:

200d: HP  CAKE

50d: KEG  ABC  BKD  JWN

2od: LTM  AVY  CAKE  VFC  ABC  LLTC

Potentially oversold oil/gas names:  REXX  BBG  CHK  UPL  EQT  CRK  RRC  COG

50–>200d Golden Crosses: SUN  PRX  CRED  KMX  LMCA  BECN  PNC  APOG  CPN  PAYX  BDCO  OCZ  WERN

20–>50d Bullish Crosses: IM  CAT  TWER  ACTV  ACAS  IVAN  RST  FBN  CIEN  CERN

Current Positions in our Swing Account:

Long POT from 43.94

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  TWC

A nice ascending triangle pattern play that has some room to run above on the daily chart.  65.50 will be the trigger area, with a stop at 63.97 representing Wednesday’s low.  Hopefully the gap up in the market won’t force a chase too much higher.  First target is 69 which is both the high from its 10/27 gap down day, as well as its 200d MA.  The stock has done a nice job consolidating underneath this 65.50 resistance area, which ideally should increase the chances of a cleaner move.

2.) Traditional short:  ROSE

As I mentioned at the top of the report, I still believe that the best shorts right now are found by finding  stocks  that are running up into technical resistance in sectors that are seeing some broad based weakness.   There just doesn’t seem to be enough fear out there to sell stocks at lows (too much squeeze risk), and I certainly am not going to call a short term top and start selling names that are trading at near term highs.  ROSE fits the bill as a short idea, as it has broken down out of a near term bear flag after failing 3x to clear its 50d MA, while there has been recent weakness in many energy names.  I will be wary of a reversal in the sector, and may easily decide to ditch the idea if the market is too strong… but if weakness persists, I would use a break below the 44.15 20d MA, or 43.90 (Fri. pivot low) as an entry, with the first support level being 42.82 pivot low from 12/28.  From there, next support/target would be 41 pivot area from mid December.  Once in, an early stop loss area would be Thursday’s close around 45.20.  If the energy sector is bid and/or the broad market catches a big bid, I will likely avoid the trade.

3.)  Small cap or sub $10 momentum:  ACAS

This stock popped up on a couple of my scans as it is both working out past short term consolidation/flag pattern on the day chart, while also seeing its 20d MA cross above its 50d MA, while the price is pushing above its 100d (which was previous resistance twice).   If trading it on or near the open I would look to enter long above 7.40 as long as the market and financials are holding up, with a stop below 7.20.  If you prefer to wait out the open and/or are looking  for a longer term swing type trade, I’d use 7.00 as a stop.  Late October pivot highs of 8.16 would be the first target level.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of Waylon Jennings

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 1-13-12

We appear to be ending an odd week with little to no gap today (as of 7:30 CT), which is always welcome if you are looking to daytrade, or initiate positions.  Yesterday, got an early flush down, then slowly worked our way back up to the opening range.  Definitely bullish, but from a personal standpoint, I always like it when the flush happens quickly on the open, so that the bounce back rally can start a bit sooner.  When it happens closer to midday, I tend to trust it less  as was the case  yesterday.  Oh well.   Still plenty of stocks moving on their own merit out there and providing good opportunites IF you are in the right names.   Big IF though, because if you are not, it can be pretty boring action.   Had an earnings report from JPM this morning, which should put the financials in play today.  It is currently gapping down about 2.7%, and if the group can’t stabilize and winds up trading lower, it’ll be tough for the broad market to put in a meaningful rally.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– RDN

Gapping Down —  DMND  JDAS  CRDC  SFLY  MBLX  JPM

No indication — ROVI

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: NNBR  WPP  TSYS  JVA  PACB  URZ  UEC  MNI  EMAN  OPK  VTNC  AMSC  OCZ  SNSS  ZN  INWK  STEC

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts: DRIV  EBIX  ATU  XLNX  PVH  MAN  SAH  LNKD  BA

Weak closes/weak chart: MCHP  UTHR  ALR  ANF

Trading up to  MA resistance:

20d: CPB  BMC  CNQR  VZ

50d: LRCX  CHS  RIMM  UA  CAH  ADSK

200d: CIT  POL  LLTC  EQY

Trading down to MA support:

200d: COG

50d: USO  GT  MSI  CPX  COP

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.   Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.   Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  EBIX

Late day run in the name has the stock pushing out of near term wedge pattern and challenging late December pivot highs.  Looks like 30+% of the short is float in this name and could provide an additional boost if it can gain momentum and force some into covering. Will cut/avoid the name if it trades below the 23 level.

2.) Traditional short:  LRCX

This is purely a TrendLine/ MA resistance short idea, as the name is running into both here at the $40 level.  Has bounced nicely from $35 lows in December along with the semiconductor sector in general.    Based on the daily chart, this is certainly not a leader in the space, however, and could be in line for a pullback as it hits resistance.  Certainly a selloff in the market and the SMH would help as well.  Won’t risk too much here…if it starts to clear that key $40 level, we would leave it alone.

3.)  Small cap momentum:  STEC

Showed some nice strength yesterday afternoon, rallying along w/ storage peers OCZ and FIO.   Stock has rallied hard so far this year…a bit of a “Januaray effect” run after being one of the worst performers of 2011.  Large short interest in the name, we’ll watch it past the $10 pivot high area for another run.  Would avoid/cut the name below 9.50.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of The Grateful Dead

The Early Bird Report