The Equities Room Blog

Early Bird Report 3-30-12

SPY’s are gapping up after a constructive day yesterday, shrugging off early weakness near its 20d MA and rallying up to near highs by the close.  Easy to see us trade sideways today within the range set this week as the month comes to an end.  Also easy to see how volume could really die out being a spring Friday after a big quarter.  Personally, I will be looking for reasons NOT to put on trades rather than aggressively trying to do too much.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  THLD  IMGN  KUTV

Gapping Down —  RIMM  TIBX  FFN  XRTX  FINL

No indication —

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: PACR  IGOI  ASTX  VRS  STRI  DEER  MELA  REE  QRM  SCEI  CXPO

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: FUL  CNL DGX  SCG  VMW  CRI  UNH  HNT  SXCI  DVA  TXT  MASI

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: EA  PAYX  GME

GoPauseGo: FBHS  TNK

Pocket Pullback (3 day orderly pullback from strong trend): CPRT  SYNC  DKS  DLTR  REGN  ABV  IACI  ATLS  BEE  TXN  LQDT

Up to 20d: CE

Up to 50d:   TWX  WR

Up to 200d: JNPR  GEO  NAT

Down to 50d: FMCN  LM

Down to 200d:   VCI   LAZ

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long PWAV 2/3 from 2.12

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long: SXCI // IACI

Two different long looks today…one is a range break, the other is a pocket pullback.  SXCI had a real nice surge out to 52  week closing highs during the close yesterday and is worth watching today, although we have seen tough sledding for traditional breakout plays.  How you choose to get in a play like this depends on your risk tolerance.  Personally, I’d wait for the open to play out to see if the stock can give a shallow pullback or sideways action before chasing any new highs out of the gate.   IACI is a stock that ran out to 52 week highs early in the week with the market, but since has pulled back (see:  Frustrating Breakout Trades) right to its 20d and previous pivot support area.  Yesterday was a very narrow range day, so we’ll use the highs (49.05) and lows (48.50) as trigger/stop areas.

2.) Traditional short:

Honestly, this market has made finding shorts really difficult.  The stocks that head lower (coal/commodities), already seem oversold, and most other stocks never get any follow through to the downside.   I know that this will change at some point, but I’m not going to force myself to any short looks that don’t feel right.  I’m sure others can find bearish charts/stocks, but I’m just not interested on this month end Friday…sorry.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  SYNC

Watching this recent IPO after it has had a couple of days to digest after a strong run from 5 to 8.  Yesterday was a stabilization day…holding the 7.00 level for the second day running, which will be our line in the sand.  Watching the stock for some volume through the 7.30 closing range highs from yesterday to see if it can catch some momentum back above 8.00  NOTE:  I haven’t traded this stock before, and it looks like it doesn’t do a whole lot of volume.  If this bothers you, I’d avoid getting involved.  As mentioned, I believe this will be a light day and if there doesn’t seem to be any sort of volume or move in the name, I’ll have no problem avoiding it as well…I just thought it was worth checking out.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  Johnny Cash

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-29-12

SPY’s are gapping down mildly after some Claims data and GDP numbers came in.  Market is in limbo a bit here as the quarter comes to an end.  It just feels like we haven’t pulled back enough to make any safe pullback buys,  breakout moves/buying highs stopped working awhile ago, and aggressively shorting has been a recipe for disaster.  I think most traders/investors are in wait and see mode at this point as there isn’t much edge.  Earnings season and a new month/quarter  are around the corner and that should give a better guide to where we are headed.  My watch lists were very small overnight, and that is fine with me.  I’d rather let trades come to me in this environment than force things.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  RHT  FOSL  DEER  GALE  PSS  LORL  SHLD    MOV

Gapping Down —  MOS  CHTP  BBY

No indication —

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: JBLU  LCC  TWER   ASYS  ZLCS

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: BBT  PNC  BMS  RES  CZR  JBHT

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: ARUN   PWE  FCX  WYNN  IDCC  HK

GoPauseGo: BLL  LEN

Up to 20d: DCI  URI

Up to 50d:   NTRI  GIS

Up to 200d: PHH  PDM

Down to 20d:PETM  LINTA  EFX  WYNN  INVN  SWI  TIF  ABV  NUS  ATHN

Down to 50d: BWC END  JBL   FLR  CMI  GCI  EAT  CNQR  DOW  ZINC  MGM    NKE

Down to 200d: ARUN  GBX

Pocket Pullback: DDD

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long PWAV 2/3 from 2.12

Long AMRS from 5.67

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  CMI

Watching this name to see how it acts here at its 50d MA where it closed yesterday.  The gap lower in the market will actually provide a little bit more color as to how it will trade at that level today, since it is indicating lower with some premarket trades around 117.  If this stock can shrug that off, and bounce back through its 50d and 118, I’ll look for a red/green type of trade (with light volume) on the open.  If it gets an opening drive lower, I may look at the 115 pivot support area from early March as a place to try and take a shot as well.  Certainly would like to see some level of stability in the broad market before falling in love with any longs today…especially one like CMI which is coming off such a nice run here in Q! 2012.  Won’t let any trade get too far away from me today.

2.) Traditional short:  HK

$10 has been big time support in this oil/gas name that has shot up late last year after a merger and restructuring.  It has held up well so far, but a break of that $10 level could open the door to some momentum to the downside.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  ASYS

Nice move yesterday out of nowhere, climbing from 8.20 to 8.80 by the close…on decent volume as well.  Not a huge fan of the small cap momentum group today, but I’ll be watching this one for a pullback or consolidation action early combined w/ continued volume to see if it can build on yesterday’s move.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Kasabian.

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-27-12

SPY’s are indicating slightly higher (though off premkt highs) from yesterday’s impressive rally and close.  The gap and go yesterday pushed us to 2012 and 52 week highs, led by the “leaders” as strong stocks remain strong (tech, financials, biotech and such) and the pockets of weak stocks remain weak ( coal, steel, nat gas).  In general, during this 3.5 month rally, large moves/candles have been greeted with some choppy consolidative action (especially the latter half of the rally), rather than momentum extensions, so we’d expect the same today.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– LNDC  VDSI  LEN  MKC  WAG  OPXT  CRWS  EPAM

Gapping Down — APOL  NBIX  MAPP  CHRS

No indication —

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: OSTK  AMRS  DANG  SIGA  EXEL  GLDD  LEE  RMTI  USAT

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: CSTR  AIG  VFC  KMX  TSCO  DRIV  MELI  BWS  PAY  HSP

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: IMAX

Pocket Pullback (multiple days of pullback from strong recent trend, with tightening range inside day last): WPRT  AMRN   DNKN

Up to 20d:  ARRS  CXO  ITT  ALKS  TZOO

Up to 50d: DRH  BX  WR  WU  GIS

Up to 200d:  GLW  JCI

Down to 20d:  RGC  DNKN

Down to 50d:  ITMN  EOG  CLI

Down to 200d: SWY  NXY

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long PWAV 2/3 from 2.12

Long AMRS from 5.67

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  WPRT  // DRIV

WPRT–Watching the stock today as it has digested three days of pullback, followed by an inside day yesterday…suggesting it finally may be ready to resume its impressive trend higher.  As mentioned yesterday, there is that feel of window dressing after this big first quarter and the strong stocks have been the best performers.  This stock fits the bill as a strong performer and if it can show some signs of strength early on, I think its a good candidate for an outperforming move from the long side.  Won’t trade it if can’t go green or slides underneath 45.75.

2.) IMAX

Just like yesterday, this is a chart-based short idea that could very likely not get triggered.  The stock has been trading sideways the whole month, and yesterday completely bucked the broad market trend and broke down out of that sideways range.  If the market is weak today, the stock is vulnerable, but I’m also a bit wary of a sideways range day or a snapback reversal.    Shorts will be looking for a drop down to the 50d at 23.70…I won’t be in the name unless it and the broad market are red.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  AMRS

Already picked up a small position in swing account yesterday, I do think that this stock is worth watching today from a day trade perspective as well.  Big relative volume came into the name yesterday out of tight short term consolidation as well as deep oversold conditions going back 9 months.    Won’t chase the stock to get in as a daytrade, but if it pulls back on the open and catches (while keeping elevated relative volume levels), I think its a good risk/reward play as it finds its way on a lot of daytrade radars looking for an oversold squeeze/bounce.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of Descendents

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-26-12

Healthy gap higher in the SPY’s here after the weekend and after a strong close into trading on Friday.  The pullback down toward the 20d in the SPY early to midweek last week now looks very orderly and the bulls no doubt have their chests out.  Lots of talk about quarter end window dressing is out there, and probably should be given some credence, as this has been an historic quarter.  If you buy into that theory, look at the strongest stocks of this rally to lead higher, as those will be the stocks that managers will want to own.   Plenty of quality setups to the upside, but this gap in the SPY’s will no doubt make it difficult to find good entries here to start the week.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  AWI  CBAK  VVUS  LGF  AIG  TSLA  DE

Gapping Down — ALXN

No indication —  CALM

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: COMV  GEVO  BONT TEAR  DLGC  EGLE  GRVY  FPP  ROYL  HMPR  BZ  IMMU  STEC  ORRF  FXEN  CPLP  PACB  GLUU  CRAY  SBX  HDY

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: INVN  HMSY  PBH  SKUL  FINL PII  NXPI  TSRA  HTGC  CUBE  AXP

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: ALB  WIN

GoPauseGo Candidates: SWHC  RGR  AEO  BEAM  LULU  BIDU  MLHR

Up to 50d: SGMS  TWX

Down to 20d:  MEOH  EMR  WMB  MHS  TWTC

Down to 50d:  RKT  UTX  AET

Down to 200d: NXY  ED

50d crossing 200d bullish cross:  AVID  EW  AHT  YOKU  IMMU  BIDU  ESI  WMS  DSX  LM  UEIC  KERX  BEAM  NTAP  HUN  DTV  UHS  OTEX  DVR  ST  CRAI  VELT

bearish 50/200d cross: bgfv  NSC  RGLD  USTR

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long PWAV 2/3 from 2.12

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  AXP

Real nice bull flag setting up on the daily chart, with some tight consolidation coming after a clean breakout in mid March.  Watching for a move through last Thursday’s highs of 57.55 for a trigger.    Certainly have to be wary of a “failed” move up here as well.  Better off looking at this one as a daytrade only for the time being, and using lighter size on any trigger that happens early on the open.  If there some confirmation of a breakout via a backtest or consolidation past highs, it could be worth adding another leg, possibly keeping a piece if the breakout gives a big enough cusihion.

2.) Traditional short: ALB

Have to be honest, its unlikely I will be looking to short this or any stock today, but from a chart perspective, this one looks weak.  Saw a steep drop in early March below its 50d after failing to hit 52 week highs, only to bounce back up over its 20d within the next could of weeks.  Unfortunately, it couldn’t trade decisively above there, failing to get back to the 67.50 area from which it fell in early March, putting in  a lower pivot high.  Friday’s trade was a weak one, breaking down hard early, back through its 50d…it tried to bounce here, but wound up slinking back toward lows by the close even as the mkt was rallying.  I think our gap higher may render this short idea useless today, but if we manage to sell off from our gap up, I’ll look and see how this one is reacting on the open, and possibly short through 62.40 area.   If the mkt and/or this stock is too strong, it’ll be easier to ignore…maybe we’ll just have to revisit later this week.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  STEC

This stock caught my eye with a nice late afternoon run out to highs from some tight consolidation on the daily chart.   It cleared its 20d MA decisively w/ the move (it had been hugging it for a week or so) and ran up to touch its 50d at 9.65 before pulling back a little bit into the close.  Will be watching that 9.65 area today for a trigger, and would consider eyeing the 9.40 area to dip toes in as well if it manages to sell off on the open.  The recent consolidation came after a bounce off of a  pivot low in March that was higher that the one in January, which can be taken as a positive….though we can’t forget that the stock is still in real “dog” territory down here near 52 week lows.  The high levels of short interest could likely fuel any run higher, but may also cause it to be short lived.  Would look at this mostly as a daytrade, maybe swinging a piece if the volume is high, the close strong and there is enough of a cushion built.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of The Shins

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-23-12

It looked like SPY’s wanted to gap a little bit higher early this morning, but that has reversed, and we are now back to unchanged after an interesting session yesterday that saw us rally furiously over the last 30 minutes.   A weakening afternoon trade saw us drop down and test morning lows at 138.75, but instead of dropping through, the level held and we ran back up toward the top half of our gap down range, surely frustrating some shorts that were looking for a flush.  All eyes today will be on that same 138.75 level, as well as the 20d MA at 138.36.   The 138 level looks like support as well as it was the low of the long candle from 3/13 as well as previous pivot highs from Feb. (old resistance becomes support).  Not as many setups popping out to me today…I will let the open shake out to see if anything materializes, but if not, I’ll likely make it a short day rather than force things.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  ACN  NKE  CPWM  CIS  NCIT

Gapping Down —  MU  SCS  LAYN  KBH

No indication —  PCTI  DRI

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: NAVB  KSWS  HCKT  PERF (just over $10, but a small cap) EGY

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: MLHR  STZ  LIFE  NDAQ  AEO  BIDU  OMC  SGMS  WDC  FRX  FIS  ANN

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: VTR  COG  OIS  FNSR  APKT

GoPauseGo Candidates: MTOR

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long GLNG from 40.50

Long PWAV 2/3 from 2.12

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long: YOKU

Simply a play on this 25 area.  There seemed to be willing buyers there today, even after the level was breached.  After announcing a merger/buyout of peer TUDO, the stock ran from 25 up to 32.75.  Since then, it has marched lower each day right back to the same 25 level where it was trading beforehand.  I really don’t have an opinion about whether the stock will or won’t rally from here.  However, I do think that if this 25 level can hold again today (maybe after another failed attempt to drive below there on the open), it becomes a very nice bounce candidate w/ an attractive risk/reward for a daytrade at least.

2.) Traditional short:  FNSR

Not my favorite stock to trade, but looking at the chart, it appears to be breaking down out of a bear flag here.  $18 has been support earlier in the month, so it may have some trouble there, but its worth watching from the short side based on the bearish chart pattern.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:   MTOR

Nice digestion of earnings related Wed. breakout, in a tough tape.   Looking for continuation move today if mkt cooperates.  Likely ignore/exit below 8.10-8.15 area.  Trigger to the upside either at 8.35 (Thurs. open range highs) or 8.46 (Wed. highs).  200d at 8.81 would be first target area.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of Trombone Shorty

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-22-12

SPY’s are gapping quite a bit lower this morning after another fairly muted session yesterday that saw us finish in the middle of a tight range here up at highs.  Today’s gap has my attention, as we are underneath the 139.48 level I’ve been watching as a key pivot point.  This isn’t enough to turn me bearish right now, but it will force me to be more selective in my long looks.  As mentioned here before, gap downs have been feasted on by daytraders and institutions alike.  Normally, the “leaders” and institutional darlings lead the way on these types of gap down days, but these stocks have already seen some nice recent runs while the broad market has gone sideways.  My fear is that if those can’t lead us higher out of this gap down, we may get a broad “risk off” day and extend our gap down….an extremely rare occurance during this 3 month rally, but one that can’t be discounted.  We shall see…I will still look at certain stocks on my watchlist to turn green early as cues, but I will be watching those “leader” stocks like CMG, PCLN, AAPL, IBM, MA, GS etc. a bit closer to get a pulse on things.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– RGR  SCVL  LUB  OXF  POZN    DISH  DG

Gapping Down — MLHR  INTU  SONC  DFS  CMRE  GIII  FDX  SIG  GME  CAG

No indication —  DMND   WNI   PERY  UTIW  PBH  PFSW

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: DEPO  NCT  VDSI  GLUU  QPSA  BMTI  GSOL  NLST  CAAS  CECO  PWAV  MTOR

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: ZAGG  VHC  CROX  GMCR  SWI  BIDU DISH  MR  IMAX  INFA SNDK  PLCM  VTR

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: EGN  BHI  HPQ  CY  INT

GoPauseGo Candidates: AMZN  AVT  CSCO  AEO  YUM  NYX//HUM  AMLN

Trading up to 20d MA:

Trading up to 50d MA: AXL EQT  NVS

Trading up to 200d MA: WPI  WYNN  PDM  MKTG

Trading down to 20d MA: CTAS  SLG  SINA

Trading down to 50d MA: APD  DTE  EMN  CVI  UNH  NOV  AMLN  CVX  ITT  ACM  EXXI  F  VTR

Trading down to 200d MA:   APA  FWLT

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long GLNG from 40.50

Long PWAV 1/3 from 2.02–2/3 from 2.12

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  AMZN

Sorry…I know I’m putting the same stock here two days in a row, but this AMZN setup is just too nice.  After a nice range break Tuesday, we saw a tight relative range “inside” day yesterday as it digested that break, setting up for a potential continuation today.   Seeing a mild gap lower here premarket…what I’ll look for first is a move from red to green.  If we get that I would look to dip my toes in.    As mentioned at the top of this report, I’m a little less bullish than normal today, so I will want to see some broad market strength and/or strong price action in this name before getting up to any sort of full position.  I’m also a little wary of a fakeout move during the open, as I think many others are looking at the same trade I am.  If the stock never turns green, then I’ll just leave it alone.

2.) Traditional short:  FWLT

Lost its 50d MA the last couple of days as it trades down out of a bear flag formation.  Actually, looking at its 2012 chart, it looks like a clear head and shoulders pattern as well, and a loss of its 200d today combined w/ a weak market “risk off” tape could see the stock flush down to early March pivot lows.  Will also keep an eye on some of its peers in the energy/oil gas sector for clues.  Below 29.90 is the trigger to the downside.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  NLST

This is a former momentum trader vehicle that has started to form a very constructive chart over the past 5 months.  50d MA appears to have been support for the 3rd time, and yesterday’s price action is bringing the stock out of some pullback/consolidation from Feb. highs.  Need to see some volume confirmation in the name.  Would look for a trigger over the 3.70 area.  As with most smaller stocks, would like to see the volume in the morning come in with some price extension, then see some flag/rest action before the second (and potentially bigger) move higher.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of Waylon Jennings

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-21-12

Modest gap higher in the SPY’s today after a grinding session yesterday, which saw stocks rally back from a gap lower to finish near highs, though still negative on the day.  Buying gap downs still is the go-to play for many traders out there, though it appeared that they buying yesterday seemed to be a little bit more stock specific, and less broad/indicies based (hence our inability to finish green).  Last Wednesday’s 139.48 is still going to be my key level (we couldn’t quite get there yesterday, hitting 139.64), and I will continue to have a short term bullish lean as long as we are trading above there.    Even w/ my bullish lean, I will be looking at different types of stock to be long, as traditional breakouts are still a bit flimsy here w/ a lack of follow through action too common…finding stocks bouncing out of  pocket pullbacks has been a bit more fruitful lately in this tape.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  OMN  KKD  FSII  ORCL  ASGN  USG  LXRX  LNKD  CTAS  YPF

Gapping Down —  JBL  ARIA  DQ  CXS  GIS  BHI

No indication —  ATU  FRED

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: ARNA  SOL  TSL  YGE  STP  SAAS  CSIQ  GTIV JASO  JKS  RENN

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: TJX  CHS  AVT  SOHU  PDM  AMZN  NTAP  ALXN  AFG

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: CSC  CHRW  TDS  WTI  CE  AGP  HUM  BGC  ERF  MUR  APA  CNC  OXY

GoPauseGo Candidates: CTCM  DUSA  NTES  FTK  HAS  RRD

Trading up to 20d MA: EW  LKQX

Trading up to 50d MA: ECL PDM  RCII

Trading up to 200d MA: ATML

Trading down to 20d MA BEAV  MA  LO  LII  IPG  APH  MGA

Trading down to 50d MA: DELL  VSH  DOV  PXD  PNM  EXXI  CAT  WTI  SANM  FWLT  HES  MDR  JEC

Trading down to 200d MA:   CSC  CE  EGN  WIT

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long GLNG from 40.50

Long AIG from from 28.42

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  AMZN

AMZN reappeared on many traders’ radar screens yesterday after a very strong day pushing out of a multi-month consolidating wedge pattern on good relative volume.  Not totally clear if the move was chart-based, or a reaction to a recent acquisition (likely a combination of the two), but either way I think it sees heightened activity in the short term.  Obvious pattern breakouts haven’t exactly been the simplest of trades lately, so I wouldn’t recommend chasing this stock on the bell.  The good news is, the premarket action has the stock mildly lower from yesterday’s close, so chasing a gap doesn’t appear to be an option.  The ideal action for me would be a drive lower on the open, then catch.  I’ll likely try and nibble lightly on any such spike lower, then try and add if the stock turns green.

2.) Traditional short:  DOV

This stock gapped lower out of some tight consolidation yesterday at its 20d (which represented a failure to retake Feb. highs)  and never was able to catch a bid, trading in a  fifty cent  and closing on lows.  It happens to have closed right on top of its 50d MA at 63.29 which appears to be the support.  I’m hoping the stock is able to open above this price, and if so, I’ll watch the action around that 50d.  If it trades back above 63.67 (yesterday’s highs) I’ll let it go.  If the market weakens, and this stock loses that 50d support, I’ll look at it for a potential short for a move down toward March pivot lows around 60.65.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  TSL // SAAS

Yesterday afternoon came some news about solar subsidy duties in the U.S. coming in far lower than many had predicted, and we saw all the China based solar stocks rally aggressively.  So much so, that we can’t ignore them today.  TSL is at the top of my list after a nice rally yesterday and clearing its 50d MA.  Now, I absolutely feel that there is some danger in simply buying these blindly on the open through yesterday’s highs.    I’d prefer a bit of a shallow pullback on the open in fact.  I’ll likely nibble around the sector on the open and try to get a feel for how there are trading today and to see if yesterday’s news continues to be a catalyst today…these stocks had/have been pretty oversold with a whole bunch of shorts, and we’ve seen multi-day squeezes in the sector in January and February so far.

If solar stocks aren’t your thing, keep an eye on SAAS.  Its a nicely trending stock that is poking out to 52 week highs after a nice session yesterday.  Its “cloud software” space is hot right now, and could get some momentum players involved if we see extra volume come in at 52 week highs.  I haven’t traded the name much in the past, so I’ll likely stay light in shares as I get a feel for how it moves and how thin it is.  Below 5.60, I’ll likely ignore the stock, and will ideally only participate if volume levels are relatively high.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of Black Joe Lewis and the Honeybears

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-20-12

SPY’s are indicating lower this morning, getting dragged down by some weak overseas markets.  So far in the premarket, 139.90 has been the low, which is a decent drop considering we traded up to 141.28 midday yesterday and closed at 140.85.    Since this rally kicked into gear in mid December, gap downs made for some great trading days, as buyers have rushed in to fill the gap more often than not.  We’re not here to call a top, so we’ll look today to see if we can find stocks and sectors that are setting up nicely, and find ones that turn green first in order to take advantage in the event that this market gets bought up.  That said, we recognize that we are at some pretty lofty levels, and that IF we aren’t able to find buyers,  the resulting sell off from a gap down could be significant.  Yesterday I noted that I was going to use 139.48 (last Wed. low) as a level and that as long as we stayed above there, I’d lean long.  I think same goes for today.   If we get a failed bounce attempt this morning and we wind up falling below that level, it may be time to look at some shorts…at least for today.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– KORS  GMAN  TIF  FMCN  TAT  JEF  GALE

Gapping Down —  ADBE  TRGT  DHT  DIS

No indication —  DSW  JASO    TYPE  WMB

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: AVL  SSN  ASYS  MTSN NTSP  VVTV  RCON  LF  SEED  PVA  DHX  YRCW  TAOM  NNBR  IPSU  SFI

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: NUAN  AGP  PCYC  VVUS  GGP  V  MA  CRZO  MAKO  FSYS  HAS

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: CPO

GoPauseGo Candidates: SIMG  MRO  POT  USHS // IDIX  MDAS (down)

Trading up to 20d MA: MOH  ARRS

Trading up to 50d MA: ECL  HRL

Trading up to 200d MA: CCL  BBY

Trading down to 20d MA: CLX  VRTX

Trading down to 50d MA: GM  STR  FLIR  NWL  ACHN  AEC  WM

Trading down to 20d MA:  COO  LNG  WCN  FLR  MITK  TRP  DLPH  WTW

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long GLNG from 40.50

Long AIG from from 28.42

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  NUAN

Nice action yesterday as the stock attempts to break out of near term wedge formation.  Looking for a continuation move to get us up to the 50d MA at 27.38 for a first target.  Will likely gap down with the rest of the market (not a bad thing)…will watch to see how buyers react on the open.  Likely won’t initiate anything below 26.40.

2.) Traditional short:  FLIR// IDIX

FLIR has been trading in such a tight range lately, and it keeps bouncing of its 50d.   Unfortunately for longs, the “bounces” don’t amount to much, and I think if it finally loses that 50d it could be a good day trade short look for a move down toward pivot lows around 24.25 from mid Feb.  Wouldn’t touch this name short if it is green on the day, as it could easily bounce from this tightly wound formation.

IDIX is sort of a dangerous stock to short, as it is often the subject of takeover chatter, but 11.00 is a big time support area, and if it trades below there its worth a short look from a daytrade perspective.   Actually, the stock has left some wicks around the 10.90 area in the past, so would like to see it trade comfortably below there as well.  Will have tight stops on the trade, using 11.25 high area from Monday.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  IPSU

Make no mistake, this can be a nasty stock to trade at times…often times it will force you to chase in order to get in.   The stock pushed out of some real tight consolidation on the daily chart yesterday, with a nice morning push followed by an extension in the afternoon.  Today’s gap down may actually make it easier to see how “in play” the stock will be today and whether or not we get some extension.   Hoping for a pullback to the 5.40/5.50 area on the open, where I’ll take a look to see if any volume and bids come in.   The stock has a fairly low float, double digit short interest, and has pulled back quite a bit since 7.50 pivot highs in mid Feb., which could bring back momentum traders for another run today.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of Galactic.

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-19-12

SPY’s are taking a back seat to the big AAPL conference call this morning and are basically unchanged here after the weekend.  Friday was an uneventful day, trading in a tight range.  These types of days have been common during this 3 month bull run…its very important for day traders to avoid trying to push things when the market is resting.  Swing and long term bulls obviously have no problems with that type of action.  I’ve got my eye on Wednesdays low of 139.48 as a first pivot level in the SPY’s.  A test and hold there, and I keep on with my bullish bias.  A break there today and I become more neutral, as the market may look to flush a bit (and attack Tuesday’s long candle)  to start the week if that (very) short term support level gets broken.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–   AAPL  UPS  CYTX  DPZ  KNSY

Gapping Down —  VRTX  MHS  ESRX  LDK

No indication — KNSY  LDK

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: AAV  ALSK  DRL  FRO  CEDC  SPWR  TSPT  RTK  PLG  SRZ

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: EXH WLL WMB  CIE  GOOG  PXD  MHP  VNR  CHK  YNDX  RIMM  EXPD  CRR  CLR  DNR

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: CNC  ADTN  IDIX  GRMN

GoPauseGo Candidates: SSP  ACAS  TRN FIS  JBHT  VRTX  // GRMN (down)

Trading up to 20d MA: DELL  LUK  SLB  EW  PXD  APC  NBR

Trading up to 50d MA: $PEP  BBG  SFY H  PGH  UTHR  WOR  STLD

Trading down to 50d MA: WRC  STR  CNP  ACE  SXC  PLCE  ACHN  F

Trading down to 20d MA:  ORCL  SAH  SKS  SWI  URI  ICE  CMCSA  MENT

50 over 200d bullish cross: ZIOP  XEC  SYMC  SMSI  CHS  LNKD  QSII  FLDM  TRW  MILL  FWLT  GLUU  SSN  VOLC  UTIW SLB  DVN CVA  APA  OCLR  BIDU WDR

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long GLNG from 40.50

Long AIG from from 28.42

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long:  CLR // CRR

CLR nice looking chart here.  A series of bull flags on the way up since last October, and Friday it traded like it wants another leg higher out of its latest. Watch for a trade above and hold of the $90 level, though we’ll keep an eye on energy peers as we don’t want to get on the wrong side of a theme at the start of the week.

CRR is not the relative strength stock like CLR, but it does have some squeeze potential.  Popped a bit Friday after a series of narrow range trading days, the stock is now entering a ripe zone above 108 on the daily chart.  Now above its 50d, there may not be much resistance until we get back to Jan pivot lows around 116.24.  Not too familiar with trading this stock, but will be eyeing relative volume and action on the open to see if it continues to squeeze.

2.) Traditional short: CNC

Not too familiar with this stock either, but the daily chart looks a little vulnerable to a downside range break after a weak day on Friday.   The stock had a steep drop early in March, and has been consolidating lately around its 50d.    Friday’s close on lows has the stock pushing the downside of the recent consolidation, and we’ll be watching the name if it breaks below the 45.25 area.  As with all shorts during this bull run, we’ll only want to be short this name if the market is in distribution mode, and if the stock itself is trading in the red.   If the market is green and running higher, and/or the stock moves back into positive territory, we have no interest in fighting trades from the short side.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  RTK

I was impressed with the action in this name post-earnings late last week.  The stock, to me, seemed like it had every right to sell off after its earnings release, as it was trading up at highs after a nice run, right at previous resistance.  In fact, sellers came in early on Friday and tried to sell the name, but aside from one big volume flush on the open down to 1.80, they were stuffed.  The stock came right back up to the 2.00 mark by the close, and will have our attention at that level today.  Will be watching for volume clues, and will likely wait out the open.  If it can trade safely above that 2.00 level on the open and consolidate a bit, we’ll look for a possible extension out to 52 week highs.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of the Grateful Dead

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 3-16-12

SPY not doing much premarket after a constructive session yesterday.  It has bee quite a week for the bulls…given a shot of adrenaline with bullish stress test results mid-week.  The underlying bid in the financials has helped push the market out to 2012 highs and keep this very impressive bull run intact.  We’ll stay biased to the long side here, although not overly aggressive…trying to avoid chasing any setups.    If a rally attempt fails and we stay firmly in the red, there is a case to me made for a bit of a pullback/mean reversion day that could be good for shorts, but that is likely not something we’ll look to take part in.  Would note that the volume and participation could be very light today as its Friday after a big week and lots of traders look to jump early to go watch some NCAA basketball (myself included).

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– PWRD  COGO   CYTX  COMV  THLD

Gapping Down —  PRMW  IMOS  OGXI  CIGX  ATPG  STLD   SINA

No indication — SOL    DOLE

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: ACAS  TNK  OSN  PWAV  TNP  LEDS

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: VRTX  MELI  VPRT  NFLX  DVN  SLAB  OVTI  NUVA

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: VMED  VOCS  SREV

GoPauseGo Candidates: BBBY  ELGX

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account: (For a review of all our swing trades for the current year, check the “Swing Trade Updates” category within our blog).

Long DDD from 22.05

Long GLNG from 40.50

Long AIG from from 28.42

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Traditional long: OVTI

Getting into some free air on the daily chart as it approaches its 200d and late August gap down resistance.  Will be watching it tomorrow to see if it can get past 18.80 which was resistance in the morning and early afternoon for at least an attempt at that 19.50 resistance area.

2.) Traditional short: VMED

Trading heavy in some pretty good tape.  The 50d will be an important area, where it very well may bounce.  However, if we get some selling across the market and that area fails to hold, I’ll be watching for a short opp as that Moving Average is the last one holding it up at this point.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  ACAS

Looks good through yesterday’s highs of 9.18 as it moves out past some consolidation on the daily chart.  Looking for a move up to the $10 area as long as the market and the financials are holding up okay.  Would avoid/stop out if it finds its way below its 20d MA at 8.87.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was helped by the music of  The Clash

The Early Bird Report