The Equities Room Blog

Early Bird Report 4-27-12

SPY’s have shrugged off the afterhours drop yesterday after the Spain downgrade, and are now looking to gap a bit higher this morning (as of 7:30 a.m CT) after a nice, sustained push higher yesterday.  Hard not tobe a little more bullish here in the medium term after this recent price action, but short term we have to remember we’ve rallied 4 straight days now after looking seriously weak on the daily chart after pushing down out of that bear flag on Monday.  Plenty of earnings plays to sink teeth into still, as well as some second day plays, and as always on Fridays (especially after a strong week like this) I’d imagine the action may dry up as we head into the lunch hour, barring any major developments.

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– AMZN  ZNGA  EMN  CRAY  EXPE  MXIM  ABAX  AAN  SWKS    RMD  OIS  AEM  JAZZ   AWRE  NWL  PPC  MRK    KKR  CERN  SPN  WCRX  ALV  F  SPG  IMAX

Gapping Down — DECK  FIO  SBUX  MDRX   CVX  VRTX INFA  CSTR  WDC  ATHN  N  CELL  SYNA  RSG  BJRI  KOG  VPRT  NANO  VRSN  SIMO  TESS  KEG  DGII  PG  VFC  HMSY  POZN  MXWL  CTCT  CPSI  B  KLAC

No indication — COV  ASGN  COHR  LAZ   THRX  IM  ELGX  BMRN  GILD  COLM  PKI  BYI    NXPI  TNAV  MIPS  NATI  QLIK  AVID    AMKR    CPTS  GDOT  HITT  INAP  ARBA     OFIX  GB  FBHS  HLS  SCSC  LEG TSRA  CMP  ANGI  CHH  UHS  TCO  TAL  GIFI  WSH  ZBRA  WY  NAFC    MGLN  IP   SAIA   LPNT    VTR    BIN  KVHI  DTE  FLIR  HELE

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: VALV  RCON   LINC  SCHS  JVA  FRO  HUSA  XCO  SUNH  RTK  IPSU

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: AME  FIS  AAP  COST  EMN  DG  AIG  LIZ  VFC  CMCSA  FTK  AVT  COV  COG  WYNN  HRC  ANF   SOHU  OPEN  CYT

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: UAL  CIEN  KMT  VAR  BLL  JDSU  WCG  FTNT  CLF  WBMD

GoPauseGo: NSR  BA  PNRA  HOG  CRS  TKR  ONXX  MSI  VAL  EW  VVUS  CERS  HA  SIGA

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): MLNX

Up to 200d: HFC  BGC  AEP  RRC  RIG  CRZO  HSC  GPN

Up to 50d: LAMR  HPQ  BKE  NWS  KEX  PKI  CVA  DWA  CLH  CBG  DNR  GT  AAN  SDRL  CVX  SIG  EXC  OFC

Up to 20d: IAG  COST  BEAM  TSN  HNZ  JPM  MW  SEIC  LULU  DV  MXIM  BBG  HSC  APA  JBL  TGT

Down to 20d: SWY  UAL  FAF  TWC

Down to 50d: IGT  BLL

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/2 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90).

Long ESRX from 56.25

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long: OPEN

Put in a nice surge on the open yesterday, and unlike normal, its was able to hold those gains…closing up in the top quarter of the days range.  Probably some more quality names in the range break category out there (we’ll be watching those too), but the high short interest has our attention here in this name after yeserday’s move.  Would actually like to see this one start red and buy the turn to green as a play rather than having to chase through the 45 area.  Will have to get a feel for the market and volume on the open.

2.)  Pullback long:  MLNX

Been pulling back ever since blowout earnings last week.  Tight range yesterday and didn’t try and push below Wed. support at 55.  Will wait out the open to see what the market tone is, but if this can either hold support again or push out bpast 56.75, I’ll be looking for a long entry.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long: RTK

Nice clean break of 2.20 resistance area on decent (but not great) volume.  Will need as good or better volume today in order to see follow through, but its a good name to keep an eye on either way.  The chart has been solid since breaking the 1.00 mark last October.

4.) Traditional short:  LULU

Nice two day bounce to short into here as it comes up to its 20d MA.  Former hot shot retailer DECK had some bad earnings last night….not that it should affect LULU directly, but may serve as a cautionary tale for those in the name.  That stock used to trade much like LULU.  Hoping for a failed move higher and then a move into the red to get short.  Day/morning trade only.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Phish

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-26-12

SPY’s (as of 7:30 a.m CT) are pretty much unchanged after yesterday’s AAPL fueled gap and hold/grind higher.  . Not a huge range yesterday from that gap up position…today should be an interesting day.  We cleared the 20d MA, and now are looking at 139.46 as a resistance level, which is a pivot high from 4/17 as well as an area just above 4/5 pre-gap lows.  This is a real test for bears.  If we truly are seeing a shift in trend, sellers will come out and sell into this level.   If we just glide through that resistance, bulls will puff out their chests and say its business as usual.    I would have to think after this 3-day run that the bulls will put up a fight and at least on the open I may look to nibble short.

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up–  NTGR  EQIX  SKX  XLNX  CRUS  DTLK  CTXS  ACOM  JAH  LOGM  TRN  ELX  EFX  STMP   NEU  TWI  WPI    TER  REGN  LMT  HZO  VHC  DNKN  HTWR  LSI  LIZ  SWI  NUS  MWW  CAB  NUAN INCY

Gapping Down — AKAM CROX  ITRI  VAR  HURN  BVSN  CLF    TQNT GG  IDCC   LEAP  POT  AET  HRB  CELG  UPS  INFN  PCS   NIHD  XOM    CNX  BWA  K  LVS

No indication —  TSCO  ARRS  OII TYL  GRT  MRH  KBR  WPZ  TBI  CDNS CLGX    WLL  COHU  OI  GGG  BDN  MORN  HRC  TEX  RKT  PMTC   LOOP  MEOH  CSGP  RJET  VDSI  CRR  CSH  IRM  TWC    OFC  MGI  HOT  UTHR  PDS  SPNC  EVR    PTEN  BLL  RGS  CCMP  LINE  DEST  GTLS  WHR  TYC  BG  WBC  IVC  PHM  STRA  CRI  WRLD  ABG  WMAR    RJF  GPI  MO    CL  HHS  LLL  DOW  FIS  WST  AME    MCO  PEP  ZMH  ELNK  AMLN  BABY  GTI  OSK  ODFL  DFT  EQT  IPG  BHE  RTN  YNDX  CLI  NBL   BMY  NTCT   JBLU  MJN    KBW  OXY  UAL  GR  EME  APU    WM  LKQX  BGG  ESI  AM  AIT  UGI  OCR  VIVO  LSTR  BC   SWC   CAM  VMC  TRS  BRY  KMT  NUAN

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: NFEC  SCEI   CREG  SIGA  RJET  CETV  ATPG  CLNT  ROYL  PDS  HBAN  NTSP

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: LNG  MA  CAB  INT  ROP  CRI  VVUS  FMC  CF  DOW  MDVN  KO  EL  WCC  AXP  COV  GMCR  TIF  AMED  VAL

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: CAT  HXM  COL  GD

GoPauseGo: T  PVTB  HSY

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): VRSN  PRGO  ESRX

Up to 200d: WSH  DRC  JNJ  ZAGG

Up to 50d: IMAX  AEM  SCI  EXXI  OSK  HOLX  WWW    HPQ  NWL  AFL  CLH  ANF  RIMM

Up to 20d: SSRI  SWI  EOG  GRMN  TROW   WDR  WTW  MAKO  PCLN  BWA  PM  ANF  ICE  ALV  SOHU  SFY  COG

Down to 20d: CY  PRGO  ESRX

Down to 50d: EP  YNDX  JNY

Down to 200d:  COP  WMT

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/2 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long: LNG

Showed some signs yesterday of a potential upcoming breakout move, pushing out to highs in the afternoon.  Much like ATPG discussed later in this report, it can be tricky getting in this name for a day trade, because it has a habit of forcing traders to chase it.  Be careful watching the volume, maybe better off catching it on a snapback early in the day.

2.)  Pullback long:  ESRX

A week after hitting new 52 week highs, we’ve seen the stock pullback to its 20d MA, shaking out some momentum traders.  Looks good if it holds that 20d and can make it back above 57.60, possibly for a move back to 52 week highs.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long: ATPG

Watching this name to see if it can put in some continuation after a nice move out of consolidation yesterday.  Has a habit of flaming out and leaving wicks, so will have to be careful.  Probably better to see it attempt to sell off early to get in rather than chase through yesterday’s highs.  Lots of shorts in the name.

4.) Traditional short:  PCLN

Certainly won’t fight this one if it shows too much strength today, but after yesterday’s huge bounce, it is right back up to resistance at its 20d     With the market looking like it will open up basically unchanged (as I’m writing this at 6:30 CT), hoping that there won’t be too big a gap either way in this name and we can get a decent read on the action early on the open.  If it diverges away from the market early (to the downside), will take a look at a potential short not too far from yesterday’s close.  As always, with this stock I keep my share size down and stops a little wider.  Absolutely won’t fight this stock if it move too far into the green past yesterday’s closing highs.  Basically its a play that yesterday’s snapback bounce overshot some and we’ll see some reversion today especially if sellers come looking to sell into bounces today.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Crosby Stills and Nash

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-25-12

AAPL fueled gap higher this morning (as of 7:30 a.m CT)  after a choppy, relatively bullish  session yesterday that saw us bounce a bit after gapping and trading below wedge consolidation on Monday.   Tough day to trade off the indices w/ AAPL and its earnings weighing so heavily on market sentiment, and tons of other big earnings names this morning as well.    Should get a good idea how much sentiment has shifted today though, as (AAPL aside) it’ll be interesting to see if sellers come looking to hunt on this gap higher.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  AAPL  SFLY  AMGN  NSC  CDXS  PNRA  RHI  LIFE  USNA  AFL  FTNT  EW  CRAY  UIS  RFMD  TKR   CNH  GNC    HOG  LAD  BA  DAL  DBD  HCBK  MOS  BCR  IGT  AN  DAN  GLW  GEOI  HK

Gapping Down — BIDU    LNET    IRBT  IPHI  CYMI  LO  CAT  ENTR  CHRW  FTI  ICON  ROK

No indication —  ULTI  WBSN  CBG    RSYS  HWAY  NFX  MANH  HGSI      NBR      ACE  SMCI  RUSHA  ITC  DRCO    ATMI   NOV  TDY  LL  NDAQ  PAG    NOC  MSI  DHX  ST    ZIP  OC  MOLX  LCRY    SO  ATI  CWEI  MDCO  DPS  CRS  SIX    AVY  QCOR  AWAY

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: VRML  KND CNIT  BREW  HBAN  RF  DRL  DGIT  PDFS  LF  CIS  SNTA LCAV  TRGT

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: PSS  CNI  DDD  DEI  NOC  AFFY  PSA  IMAX

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: HRC  CRM  DAR  DLPH  KRO  EXPR  CSCO  LULU  CERN  AM  LKQX

GoPauseGo:

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): TJX  VCLK  TNGO  JDAS

Up to 200d: WCRX  AMED

Up to 50d: AEP  IM  EMR KMT  TWI

Up to 20d: OC  HP  ST  ADM

Down to 20d: SBUX  ROST  TJX  HPT  DLTR

Down to 50d: KLAC  MHP  QNST  ALXN  MJN  TDC  SJM

Down to 200d:  MRVL  MCD

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/2 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:    DDD

I already own this in my swing account, but the daily chart looks really nice here, showing no effects of the recent market wide pullback.    The stock can be tricky to day trade, so will be careful with entries and try to avoid chasing and make sure that the stock has enough relative volume to sustain follow through.

2.)  Pullback long:  TNGO

Will be watching this recent IPO after a 3 day pullback after breaking out to all-time highs last week.  Will use the 20d to the downside as a stop if it can find a bid in a strong market today.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  HBAN

Financials and particularly regional banks showed some real strength yesterday, and this HBAN chart looks pretty if it can clear the horizontal resistance level around 6.60.  Keep an eye on the financials as a group before jumping in on a range break though.  Don’t want to get caught leaning if we see weakness in the group.

4.) Traditional short:  CERN

Not to excited about jumping in short anything early today, but will be watching how CERN acts today after confirming a move below a bear flag setup yesterday with a weak drop to lows yesterday into the close.  Also seeing the 20d MA bearishly cross its 50d.  Expect this to bounce w/ the market on the open, I’ll take a look around the 73.20 -73.80 as one  area for a potential short into strength.   Depending on how/where it opens, you could wait until it trades back up to the MA cross at 74.60 as well.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Led Zeppelin.

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-24-12

SPY’s are gapping a little bit higher (as I send this at 7:30 a.m. CT)  after yesterday’s session which saw us open down out of a a bearish flag.  The intraday action was nothing special, the most important takeaway being that buyers are no longer rushing in to buy gap downs like we once were.  This isn’t new to anyone , but serves as more of a confirmation that we truly are in a corrective phase after the Q1 runup and reminded all traders/investors that the long side is going to be challenged in the near term.  As a more natural long side trader, its hard for me to get too excited about that type of tape right now.  Carefully selected longs can still work, but discretion is needed when picking them out.  Most of the charts I pull up look better as shorts  to be honest, but I think that chasing stocks to the downside in a red tape is still dangerous, and that it’ll be better to get short on bounce attempts.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– ALGN  HXL  RCII  TXN  WRB  DGIT    RF  MMM  BHI  UTX  ALXN  HSY  T  PVTB  PH  AXE  R  WAB  CSL  X  BYD  WU  LECO

Gapping Down — NFLX  BIG  ZION  UCTT  HSTM  OMI   CRDN  IIVI   RSH  WAT  COH  CE  LXK  SANM  SYMC  CXW  APD  CNC   RAI

No indication — WWD  HMA  VLTR    PVH  USTR  CR  IEX       ASH  CIT    ASTE  PNR   CPLA   DLPH    MLI  MHP  TROW  FDML  LECO  TWIN  LII  RYN  ITW  KSU  SIAL  WFT  IMN  AMP

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: DSCO  LNET  NRF

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: DNDN   SUN  GNC  ENB  CRI  BBT  AEO

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: PCL  IPGP  WTW  SE  MHK  ROK  CELG  GWW  ASNA  DV

GoPauseGo: WPI  NCR  RGR  YUM

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): JBHT  AIG  PKT

Up to 200d:  BKS

Up to 50d: UNP  MMM  RYN  DUK  HCP  SLG

Up to 20d: PFCB  DRI

Down to 20d: LRY  CHD  HST  SBH  QNST  EQR

Down to 50d: LL  FRX  SJM  V  PDCO  HCA

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/2 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:    DNDN

Trend-bucking move yesterday in a weak tape for this disputed name… out of a recent range and right up to 50d MA.   Won’t chase it early through yesterday’s highs, but will look for an early snapback to potentially pick up some shares if the volume is there, potentially then adding through 11.20.

2.)  Pullback long:  AIG

Orderly pullback in this name found support at its 20d and rallied on the open in a tough tape.  Looking for strength in financials and the broad market and some good relative volume here before getting any long.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  LNET

Highly shorted name has been putting in a flag pattern for the better part of 2012 after hitting highs early in the year.  Watching for a high relative volume move past 4.00.    Since we saw the stock rally .20 to get up to this resistance level yesterday, would keep shares light on any early attempt to clear the level…potentially adding or initiating on a pullback or consolidation move.

4.) Traditional short: CELG

“Leading” names have been dropping one by one during this market correction.  CELG lost 20d support yesterday and couldn’t get off lows.  Will be watching for continued weakness and a short term trade down to its 50d at 76.16 for a target.  More weakness in the market would obviously help…its the type of stock that could trap shorts on the open, so will be wary trying to chase too hard on the open, and if it finds a way to go green.  Noticed that ALXN had some good earnings this morning and is gapping higher…it is similar to CELG in that it is a biotech name that has performed incredibly well of late.  Will keep one eye on that name today…if it finds a way to go red, it might help bring down a similar chart/name like CELG.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  Morphine

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-23-12

Big gap lower here after the weekend, with the SPY’s indicating -1.36 at the 136.58 level.  This puts us through our April wedge support Trend Line and at 4.16 pivot lows.  Next stop is 4.10 pivot lows at 135.76, then psych 135.00.   I’m not ruling out buyers coming in to buy this gap lower, but I’d be wary of any such attempt failing quickly during the opening hour of trading.  If that does happen, I think the downside move gets confirmed in many eyes and we could see bids tough to come by.   I hate leaning one way or the other after a large weekend gap, so I’ll try and let the open play out before picking a side.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– AMLN  DHI    CEDC  XRX

Gapping Down — ACHN  HAS  WWW  K  COP  CHKP  WMT  MTG  ETN

No indication —  HLX    STI  BEAV  DTG   ROP   SAH

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: SGOC  PGI  UNIS  MILL  DSCO

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: GIL  DKS  MTB  MRK  ENB  EL  AMRN  COV  GWW  HOG  UA  PEP

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: XLNX  ABX  FNSR  ADI  BHI  JNPR  NFX  LNC  INVN  OIS  DAN  HP  GM  CNX  MW CRR  TRN  WBC  SM

GoPauseGo: SNA  EBAY AET  PPG  WLP  LHO

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): V  SVU  SBUX

Up to 200d:

Up to 50d: ACOM  LBTYA  ALV RYN  TWX  MMM  HCP  AEP

Up to 20d: PBI  NRG  LII  UTX  FDX  IGT

Down to 20d: CONN  CRM  DDS

Down to 50d: FTNT  CMC  GWRE  OVTI  INTC  AAPL  QQQ

Down to 200d:  AMAT  BRCM  ATVI

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/2 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:    PEP

Good looking chart here, as it is probing the 67 resistance area, a breakout of which would confirm a nice looking head and shoulders pattern formed since Feb.   Was thinking we’d  need to see a broad based rally today in order to increase the odds of this as a long side play today, so today’s gap down indications will decrease the odds of this play.  However, if buyers come back into the market in force today to fill the gap, I’ll watch to see if and how quickly PEP can go red/green, which would be the only way I’ll play it from the long side.    If it can do it quickly, it may be a nice day-to-swing trade opportunity.

2.)  Pullback long:  AAPL/ V

I’ll have my eyes on both of these names today as pullback opportunities, albeit of two different varieties.

As for AAPL, trying to get specific on a plan and prices is difficult in this situation.  Trading on the open will be very erratic, and by the time I write this the premarket activity will likely have changed the landscape in the name as well.  A three day pullback (on the heels of one large bounce day after another three day plunge) has it approaching some significant support areas.  I will be watching for support at 568 gap fill area on the daily, the 50d MA, and ultimately even 550 old pivot highs.  Would also have alerts set for a move from red to green today if we see a strong bid in the name.

V is a bit of a different story.  Its one of the last “leaders” out there who has seen its price hold up on the daily chart.  A very mild and orderly recent pullback since a two day run out to 52 week highs recently, I’d imagine the stock will test its 20d at least on a pullback on the bell.  If (big IF), we find buyers come in on the open to fill this downside gap, V’s position on the relative strength and leadership board would make me think that it could be one of the first names to show strength and go green.  If it does, I’ll be looking to find a way in to give me long exposure.  Won’t touch it if it stays red and it appears that it will be the latest “leader” to give back.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  DSCO

Buyers came in early on Friday, and kept this stock bid up until the close, pushing the name over its 20d for the first time since a big gap lower in mid-March.  Watching today for some volume confirming follow through.  If it comes in, I think that momentum money can push this stock back toward its 50d at 2.95.  Will use 2.50 as a stop.  If forced to chase early, will put on small size and wait for some sort of pullback or consolidation to add a second leg.

4.) Traditional short: HP

Ugly close here after a failed gap higher attempt to clear its 20d.  A series of failed upside wicks on the daily chart over the past month and below its 20/50/200d MA’s,  this stock looks really vulnerable if the market breaks down out of its own bear flag.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  Delta Spirit

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-20-12

Nice gap higher here in the SPY’s after another pretty lousy session yesterday.   137 area / Trend Line held as support yesterday as we bounce in a sideways-ish channel here.  139.19 is the 20d Moving Average (the one that is starting to hook over), and will likely be resistance above.  Don’t think bulls or bears are enjoying this current tape, and this being a Friday after a choppy week, I am not expecting much today, and wouldn’t be surprised to see volume die out early as traders lose interest heading into the weekend.

 

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– ACTG  MSFT  CMG  BLDR  COF  VMI  SLB  GE   KMB   MET  HON  MAN  MCD  ETFC  AMD

Gapping Down —  TPX  RVBD  SNDK   EZPW  LSCC  IR   JCI  UA

No indication —  HBI  BGS IBKR  CHE  CB    FWRD    CYN  GDI  NCR

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: PRKR  OSTK  BIOS  MILL  RSH  WRLS  XOMA XCO

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: AET  UNH  WLP  MUR  WLT  ACE  CHMT  TNGO  SNA

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: GS  SWKS  FLR  TRW  RL  AFL  LEA  R  A  FLIR  ENR  JOSB  CRUS  RBN

GoPauseGo: ARAY   URI  ATHN

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):  AVP

Up to 200d:

Up to 50d: SCG  RCL  BXP  NE

Up to 20d: OMC  GME  COG  CVE

Down to 20d: DNKN  BBBY

Down to 50d: INTC  XLS  GSVC  APH

Down to 200d:  F  ATVI

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/2 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  TNGO

Pretty long candle yesterday as it broke out through $20, so entries will be tricky today.  Not necessarily looking to buy through yesterday’s close today on the open…instead I’ll look to see if it pulls back a bit on the open.  I like the fact that it is a relatively recent IPO and may have found itself on a lot of traders’ radar screens yesterday w/ that +volume breakout, possibly helping its chance to find follow through today.

2.)  Pullback long:  APH

Watched this name bounce off its 50d for the second time yesterday, and today I’ll look for signs of a reversal.  Entries might have a lot to do w/ market tone today, and I’ll most likely wait out the open to try and get a feel for how the broad market is acting.  Two long side scenarios are buying down near the 50d again today if it holds the level, or watching the name consolidate on the open near yesterday’s 58.80 high area then buying a post open break of that level.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  BLDR

Looked like a real nice beat for this  nice trending stock  last night.  Has pulled back from recent 4.50 pivot highs, but it also has bounced a bit from 3.50 pivot lows from last week.  Not sure where this will open up, may look to grab some if possible in the 4.10-4.30 area to see if it can make a run at 4.50.  Due to the earnings component of the play, will have to tread somewhat likely in case there is something negative in the report I’m missing, or if it does something on the conference call.

4.) Traditional short: TRW

Daily chart appears to be curling over here after a failure for the past two weeks to get back above its 50d Moving Average.  Now we are seeing the 20d bearishly cross that 50d, and if the market is weak today, could weigh on this name and make it an attractive short.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  The Pixies

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-18-12

Yesterday’s move in the SPY’s was incredibly strong and had to catch a lot of traders/investors leaning the wrong way, as some poor closes and recent action gave the impression bears were going to be in control and ready to stuff rally attempts.  This morning, however, we’re not yet seeing any follow on strength and are gapping a bit lower as we continue the Jeckyll and Hyde act of late.  Bulls will be looking forward to a rally from this gap down scenario, and if we can go positive today, it should lead to some nice long side trading as we try and get back above the 20d Moving Average.   If we can’t manage that, however, and we fall back toward the 50d at 138, then yesterday all of a sudden doesn’t look as great and doubt creeps back in.  I still feel as though there is very little edge out there in trying to pick out a current trend in this market.  Luckily, we have earnings season to poke around with and will see plenty of opportunity in individual names.  Overnight and this morning,  we saw plenty more high profile names report including HAL, INTC, IBM, ISRG, SYK, CSX just to name a few.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up– ISRG  STX  SYK  YHOO  URI  CSX  THQI  TXT  DEPO  HAL  SXCI  PII  ABT

Gapping Down — CREE  IBM  INTC  IN  GNW  TNP

No indication —  LLTC  PKG  MDU    PNC  BLK  BK  DOV    APH

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: TISA  PVA  BYD  APP

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: CAB  ECL  TZOO  NFLX  DECK  APKT  PANL  VRX  BMRN  LL  IPXL  PRGO  MCO  WRB  RSG  CHS

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: TIVO  WHR  BR  AES

GoPauseGo:

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): Z

Up to 200d: CLI  ORCL

Up to 50d: HE  IM  KMT  NXY  PEG  LLTC  MXIM

Up to 20d: MMM  BAM  PKG  THOR  FDX

Down to 20d: VVUS  LO

Down to 50d: TSU

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long: APKT

Not a traditional breakout play, as this stock sits very low on the relative strength scale.  However, it IS threatening to break out froma 1.5 month range after making a double bottom at lows of 25.00 recently.    Nice trend higher day yesterday with the rest of the market, the play here today is for the high short interest to get a little nervous and set the stock up for a squeeze.  Ideally, the stock and the market shrug off a gap lower and turn green.  If APKT is able to turn green w/ some good volume I’ll look to enter through 28.75.  I won’t want to be long below 28…can’t forget that this is really a poor performer, and if the market is weak and/or the squeeze doesn’t look like its playing out, its not a name to be sitting in on the long side.

2.) Pullback long:  BBBY

Have had this on my pullback buy list for awhile, and even highlighted it a couple of days ago, but it hasn’t quite bounced yet from recent support level, so I’ll include it again today.  Watching it above 70.35 today, ideally as the market turns green from its gap down.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  APP

Noticed some nice buying come into the name into the close yesterday in this turnaround name as it tries to hold on to the 1.00 level.  I’ll be honest, this stock has frustrated me in the past, so I’m not going to give it a long leash, but I am going to watch the stock on the open to see if the buyers from yesterday come back in to this name today.  It has the ability to be a squeeze name, and I’d think many momentum players would come in for a trade if it is showing abnormal relative volume and strength.  If it trades back below  1.00  I am no longer interested in the name.

4.) Traditional short:  MMM

Stock has had a nice bounce off lows during the past week, climbing from the $85 pivot support area back up to yesterday’s high around 87.65.  This happens to be a key level, as it represented an old failed support area from early in the month.  It also happens to be the spot at which its 20d is currently bearishly crossing through its 50d MA.  Any sign of market weakness today, and I think MMM is a good r/r short through the 87 area, with stops above 87.65.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of The Band

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-17-12

Little bit of a gap higher in the SPY’s this morning after another rather disappointing session yesterday saw us limp into the close.  The Dow was much stronger, closing solidly in the green, as there was a real flight toward safety stocks and away from some of the high flying, former leading stocks of the Nasdaq and S&P.   More and more earnings are starting to roll in, and we had some big names report this morning, including GWW, JNJ, GS and KO.  Trading continues to be tricky, as the grind up/buy dips trend from Q1  is a thing of the past, at least for the time being.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  GMXR  ICUI  LNG  USB  CMA  WST  KO  JNJ  CPST  PESI  FSLR  PBTH

Gapping Down —  ZOOM  CCMP  GS  GWW

No indication —  OMC  STT  NTRS  FRX

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: YRCW ADY  RGEN  LCC  USAT

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: INXN  RBC  SPG  CRI  CALL  DDD

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: SLM  PWRD  NUAN  SGY  JNPR  HNZ  WAT  SFD  BWLD  WTW  BAS  BX  BCR

GoPauseGo: VRSN

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): CELG  BIIB  AAPL

Up to 200d: NXY  JDAS

Up to 50d: ETP  MMC

Up to 20d: ALB  SWK  SNI  UPS

Down to 20d: CVI  CELG  CLB

Down to 50d: AMTD  AET  PIR  BCR  FTNT  HOS  BLK  AGU

Down to 200d:   VLO  NUAN  BX

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  CALL

Stock moved out of some sideways consolidation yesterday on good relative volume after raising guidance.  Watching it past 24.30 for a trigger if the market is cooperating today.  Would leave it alone or stop out below 23.60.

2.) Pullback long:  AAPL

Can’t pretend that I trade this name that often, but its really hard to ignore THE leader of the recent rally after such a significant 4 day pullback.  Normally, I’d like to see the candles of the pullback get smaller with each day (rather than longer like AAPL’s), but in this case I’ll make an exception because it has the chance to be a “blink and you missed it” type of bounce.  The stock has traded from red to green in the premarket so far this morning…up over 10 points from premarket lows.  Would like to see it pullback on the open, or at least consolidate for a bit before jumping in for the reversal trade.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:  GMXR

Keeping my eye on this small cap oil/gas name after they provided an operational update yesterday after the close.  It seemed to read pretty well, and the stock ticked up mildly after the report release.  Watch the relative volume here, as it will be absolutely necessary for it to hold any move to the upside.  If the stock finds its way back below 1.45 I’ll just let it go/ignore it.

4.) Traditional short:    BLK

Will be looking to short this name today if a couple of things happen.  First, I’d like to see a weak market with financials leading the way lower.  Second, I’d like to see BLK lose its 50d support level where it has held for the last 4-5 trading days.  If both those things happen/are happening, I’ll look to get short BLK (ideally without having to sell into a hole on the open).  198.55 was a big resistance level all day yesterday, so I’ll look to that level as a stop out point on any shorts that get initiated.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  Jay-Z

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-16-12

Decent gap higher in the SPY’s after a rough day for the markets on Friday, that saw us give back all of Thursday’s gains and close on lows.  Really felt like sellers were ready and waiting to pounce after the  two day bounce off lows, as this market tries to figure out what type of correction this is, and is going to be.   You could argue that we needed to correct after the 4.5 month Super Trend rally either way, but I think that negative headlines about Europe and some poor economic number here and in China have given this pullback some extra volatility.    Its still very impressive to see certain stocks holding extremely bullish trends on their daily charts, but at the same time, when you see other bulletproof “leaders” (AAPL for instance) start to crack  , you wonder if its a matter of time before the rest  correct as well.    From  an earnings specific perspective, this past week’s big ones (JPM, WFC, GOOG) have shown us that expectations were very high, and that in-line numbers will leave stocks vulnerable.  All 3 sold off significantly after their reports.  I know that I trade better/more naturally from the long side, but to me there are a lot of bearish overtones and uncertainty in the market right now.  As such,  I will be extremely selective and quick to take profits on long side trades, and will be more active in seeking out quality short looks intraday.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–   SSYS  CSIQ  FTK  ECYT  VRNG  C  BIOD  LIVE  BWOW

Gapping Down — MAT  DANG  FUEL  HALO

No indication — TEA  MTB  GCI

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: CNDO  CNIT  RENN  RTK  YRCW

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: PNRA  LO  QCOR  TPX  MA  AFFY  VRSN  CROX  SPRD  ULTA

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: EW HME  ACE  R  PAAS  AES  POT  CJES  QSII  AMGN  EV  LIFE  CIE  ANF

GoPauseGo: BIDU  HXL  ANR  RTN  OPEN  MKTG HMIN  BSFT  TSCO  DKS  PANL  MBI  ISRG

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): PCLN  BBBY  CONN  BIIB

Up to 200d: CROX  SREV

Up to 50d: IRM  MGM  JCI  SWY

Up to 20d: ADSK  DRE  WCC  PLL

Down to 20d: KMI  AET  THRX  BIIB

Down to 50d: PPS ELN  ETFC  SCHW  CTSH  URBN  TD  CVH  SWKS  BWLD  DEI  BLK

Down to 200d:   PLCE  TUP  AMAT  ATW  STR  DVN  LNCR  THRX  PBCT  FTI

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  ULTA

Impressive run in this name so far in 2012 after clearing 75 resistance level.  I’m not sure this is on my swing radar up this high, but for a day trade this looks like a good breakout candidate for an attempt at the psych $100-level.  It has held up very well during the latest market shakeup, and if we get a trend-up day in the market, this one will be looked at long with trigger above $95.

2.) Pullback long: BBBY

Had a big gap n go rally on 4/5 off earnings guidance, but since then we’ve seen the stock work its way down to support with tightening ranges along the way.  69 is the major obvious support area (4/5 gap-up lows), so it’ll need to hold that area once again before we look to go long.  How to get in this stock from the long side will likely depend on broad market tone.   We’ll have to watch that 69 area as a big key.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:   YRCW

Super speculative idea on this name that is fighting off bankruptcy.  Saw a very big  relative volume bar on Wednesday as it bounced off long term lows.  Since then, it has seen two inside/tight range days just underneath the 6.82 Wednesday highs.  I would have like to have seen some better volume Friday, but since the at least the price held up during a bearish overall market tape.  I think a push past 6.82 could really get a major squeeze going in this name.  Its a difficult name to trade, however, and absolutely will need to get some relative volume going in the name to see the squeeze take hold.  Not a stock to hold on to if it goes red, so I’ll be uninterested if it can’t get/stay green on the day.  Be careful with this one if you play.

4.) Traditional short:  CIE

Watching this momentum energy name as a short look after it lost its 50d last week and now has a clear gap to fill down to its pre-gap level at 24.41.  Also could be affected by some negative headlines about a U.S. probe.  This latest bit of news after the weekend could force the name to gap significantly lower this morning, so I would be careful chasing this too far down for any short entries.  If it opens below 27.50, I think would have to wait for any sort of bounce attempt to play out before chasing.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  The Kills

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report 4-13-12

We are seeing a mild gap lower in the SPY’s here in the pre-market, after some weaker than expected Chinese economic data, and high profile earnings results from GOOG, JPM  and WFC.  We’ve had a nice two day bounce in the SPY’s here, but its worth noting that we are still underneath our 20d Moving Average and last Thursday’s close.  Point being, if the recent crack below trend lines in the market signaled a real shift toward a correction phase, we are going to start to see sellers fade bounce attempts, and start to make lower highs.   I’ll admit though, I have a hard time convincing myself to short this market…especially if yesterday’s rally in commodity stocks finds some follow through.  In all, as I’ve mentioned here before, the signals are really starting to get mixed, so I’m going to stay nimble and trade lighter than normal.

News/Earnings Stocks

Gapping Up–  GOOG  CSTR  JOEZ  ADBE  LNG

Gapping Down — JPM  NEI  TLB  PWAV  INFY

No indication —  JBHT

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: KUTV  FFEX  SGOC  ANW  RENN  SHO  ZOOM  NKA

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: RSG  V  BIDU CRS  OPEN  MKTG  CZR

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: MRK CZZ

GoPauseGo: WFR  DVR DSCO  CRM

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): BIIB  CONN  KO   THRX  WLP

Up to 200d: DRC  CLF

Up to 50d: ETP  CNX  NSC  ROK  GPC  WLT

Up to 20d: PETM  JPM  FCX  DCI  IACI  TWC  XLNX  NXY  BGC  COL  PCP  ROK  LRCX  EA  CP  OMC

Down to 20d: MJN  FOSL  MDVN

Down to 50d: CERN  DGX  ELN  ARIA

Down to 200d:   NTAP  TUP

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05

3  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  CRM

If this market continues to press higher, hard to imagine this one doesn’t break out.  A bit of a pause/inside day yesterday may be of some concern for those looking for it to run w/ the rest of the market, but I’m thinking if we get another green day in the market, this one could make a move.  Lots of confounded shorts in the name may feel the pressure.  Out/ignore below 156.50, but looking for a long above 158.50/159 trigger.

2.) Pullback long:  KO

Chopping around a bit around its 20d after a pullback from 52 week highs last week, will look for a long trigger above 72.25 (Thurs. highs).  If it trades below 71.85 a.m. lows from yesterday, will ignore/stop out.

3.) Small cap or sub $10 momentum long:   DVR

Inside day yesterday after a strong move up on Wednesday.  Above 3.75 is long trigger, and 3.55 area is ignore/stop out level.  Through the 3.75 area there is a lot of room above on the daily chart.

4.) Traditional short:   GPC

Big two day reversal after some heavy selling early in the week.   Its now coming up on its 50d MA, where it struggled to clear in mid-March and again last week.  Don’t want to touch the name if it clears this level and the market is rallying, but if it struggles here and the market sells off, it could look to give back some gains.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

 

The Early Bird Report