The Equities Room Blog

Early Bird Report5-31-12

We’ve seen the SPY’s go from a decent gap higher down into the red here in the pre-market after GDP and jobs data were released.  The market was very heavy yesterday, closing on lows and felt much like the action earlier in the month.  131.49 was yesterday’s lows (around 131.30 in afterhours), and bulls would like to see that level hold.  As I mentioned yesterday, I just don’t know how much support there will be below there, and would set up a situation where the market gets pulled like a magnet down to a retest of the 129.55/130 area.

 

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– ZUMZ CIEN GNRC  MVIS  LEAP TJX

Gapping Down —  LGF  CHTP  JOY BMRN FFIV

No indication —  TLYS  TIVO

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: NCIT  NEON  LMOS  AMPE

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: AAPL  LF  ASNA  TFM

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  DEI  RIG  CTSH  SXCI  CBI  CB  KBR  WAG  UIS   ROSE  CTCT  FLR  CLP  COV  HPT  LINTA  EQY  SLB  TCO  RKT  CLB  TRV

GoPauseGo:  MDCO  WWWW  COST  CMG   SZYM  IN  MBI  BONT

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):

Up to 200d: SLM  HRB  VSH

Up to 50d: N  HBI  ENS

Up to 20d: CF  FRX

Down to 20d AEO

Down to 50d: FE  SGEN  ECA

Down to 200d:  ACN  DD  LINTA

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

Long WYNN from 105.53

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:WWWW

Looked ready to breakout after a strong day Tuesday, it sat back yesterday as the market sold off, and traded in a tight range here underneath 52 week highs.  Watching today for a move above 16.30 for a long trigger w/ an eye on relative volume.  Below 15.60 will ignore for now.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  AMPE

Nice pop into the close yesterday on some decent relative volume.  has built a decent base down here near lows, never really able to crack below 2.50 after several tries.  Seeing some European patent news hit the wires this morning.  Not sure if that was the reason for the pop yesterday, but will watch for some follow through today.  Below 3.00 will ignore/exit.

3.)  Pullback short:HBI

Still feel like this market is presenting that its safer to sell pops rather than buy dips right now.  HBI is a name that has had nice run of late, bouncing from 24.64 up to its 50d here around 27.90, where it closed yesterday.  I won’t be selling the name if it manages to trade above there, but may look to enter a short if it trades back below that level for a mean reversion trade…especially if the market is weak.

4.) Traditional short: TCO

Real Estate names were some of the last names to hold up very well as the market was rolling over.  However, the bullish action has been somewhat muted during the last market mini-rally off lows and now many of those names appear to be rolling down out of bearish flag formations.  TCO fits the bill and I’ll be watching for a short through 72.50 if the market and the sector continue to show weakness.  Will have to be wary of any sort of sector wide bounce though, so I won’t be short if the stock or sector manages to trade green.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of LCD Soundsystem

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-30-12

Sizeable gap down this a.m in the SPY’s on, you guessed it, worries over Spain and Europe.  Its no fun to have to navigate these Euro headlines, but it is what it is.  We had staged a nice bounce recently off the 130 pivot lows in the SPY’s, so some give back shouldn’t be unexpected or overly worrisome for bulls.  In fact, it is on gap down days like this, where we can really see what this latest rally is made of…a gap fill would be pretty impressive.   131.78 are lows we made last Friday, I’d watch that area as a first line of defense if we crack lower on the open.  Below there, its a little harder to pick real support…I suppose 131.42 lows from last Thursday could be monitored.  If we start to trade below those levels, however, I think we start to get pulled back like a magnet for a retest of the 130 area.

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– FORM  TFM  OSIR  MON  DGIT  NEON

Gapping Down —RIMM  PWRD  SURG  ITRN  DRYS  CPRT

No indication —  ALNY  JOSB  HBI  YGE  FINL  BAH  TEA  PEG

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: IN  HW  AUTH  RMBS  OTT  MVIS  SNTS  XOMA  SNSS  DATE

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: NTES  PENN  SLXP  CVS  LKQ  EQIX    LII  TWTC  DSW  BBBY  SYNC  SWI  MLNX  LVS  WYNN  SFLY

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  CALL  STX  BAX  TEVA  RATE  MHP  WDC

GoPauseGo:  CVH

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): GEO

Up to 200d: UHS  LM  MPC  HRB

Up to 50d: CMCSK  FR  GE  GT  DISCA  CSTR  HBI  SLE  FCS  M  CBS  A  DGX

Up to 20d: SYK  PFG  BRY  BLL  APH  ADI  SFLY  MCO  SIMO

Down to 20d

Down to 50d:

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

Long WYNN from 105.53

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long: PENN

Casino name has been coiling up here underneath 52 week highs for the better part of the month, and could get a pop if it is able to break out convincingly past the46/46.50 area.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long: HW

Nice move out to 52 week highs yesterday on heavy relative volume.    Follow through may be tough today, especially as the market is gapping down, but its worth watching today to see if it gets some follow through.  Rather than chase it on the open, may look for a pullback toward 4.50 on the open for an entry.

3.)  Pullback short:  CSTR // M

Again, not many long pullback ideas out there are interesting to me, as they would have had to have been pulling back as the market was trying to bounce off near term lows, which is a red flag.  CSTR and M look like a decent r/r short ideas to sell into strenghth, however, as they both have bounced sharply up to their 50d Moving Averages.  Unfortunately, it looks as though we will be gapping down quite a bit today, so getting an entry near those averages may be tough.  I won’t chase either on a gap down, but if they find a way to pop up early in the session, I’ll consider a fade.  If they are bumping up toward those areas later in the session, I’ll likely ignore them both.

4.) Traditional short: MHP

Ugly day yesterday, as it tried to gap higher, and was sold off early, filling the gap.  Couldn’t recover later with the rest of the market, and wound up closing on lows.  Looking at the daily chart, it hasn’t been able to bounce materially off that 200d with the market and now it looks like it will lose that support level.  Not much in the way of support below.  44.40 is the target trigger area, and a move below May pivot lows of 44 would be confirmation.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  Grateful Dead

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-29-12

Getting a decent gap up here in the SPY’s after the long weekend, though its hard to pinpoint any specific news.  No disaster news seems to be enough of a reason.    We did bounce some last week off recent lows, but its hard to get too excited, as sellers still seem as though the are ready to step in and sell into strength.    To the upside we have last Tuesday’s high of 133.23 looming as resistance, as well as the 20d above there at 134.61.    Feels to me like bulls and better do a good job holding us in the green today, or else it sets a bad tone for the week, and a potential test of the recent pivot lows down near 130.  A hold of this gap and a close above the 133.23 area would do the opposite, giving bulls something to hang their hat on.    Will be keeping an eye out for sector rotation/indicators as we start the week, in case the overall action can’t pick a side.

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up–  BPOP  WAVX

Gapping Down — VRTX  HMPR

No indication —  MY  FMCN  SAFM

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: REED  AQ  TCX  PACB  KV.A

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: AMLN  EAT  NWL WEC  MPC  ABT   DECK  BODY  ALXN

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break: LO  MENT  GOOG  OVTI  ACN

GoPauseGo:  DF

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):

50–>200d MA Cross:

Bearish: NUAN  BRY  MBI  GPN  NYX  CR  DRQ  JNJ  SBGI  EPAY  PLCE  FNGN  ICFI  RBA  STLD  R  INT  NDAQ  LEG  MCHP  OTEX  LAZ

Bullish: ZAGG  ECPG

Up to 200d: RGLD  UTHR   ENDP

Up to 50d: NKE  PRGO  AES  KNX   URBN  DISCK

Up to 20d: WWW MJN  SLAB  AFG  FNGN

Down to 20d

Down to 50d: ACGL  KFT

Down to 200d: BA  DD

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  ALXN

Some wild, net bullish action last week has this biotech (leading sector) name back up near 52-week high $95 pivot area.  If we get some strength across the market, and the biotech sector continues to lead, I’ll be looking for this to make a run at the magical $100 level.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  ARNA

Don’t see many charts in the small cap/sub $10 that really have my interest on the open, and I’ll likely stay away unless I see some abnormal trading/volume in some names on the open.  Once stock that does have me interested here is ARNA.  Been trading in a pretty tight range the last few days, leaving some downside wicks.  Has some premarket interest and volume here today gapping higher after paying down some debt.  Not sure its enough to spark the stock, but if it can pullback and/or consolidate on the open with ++ relative volume, I’ll watch for a mid-morning breakout.

3.)  Pullback short: RGLD

Don’t see many names that I like as pullback longs after last week’s bullish action…instead there are more names that have bounced up into resistance that look like pullback shorts.  RGLD is one that has bounced up with other miners nicely from lows and is now bumping into its 200d here after putting in a doji candle on Friday signalling a possible reversal.    Keeping an eye on the GDX ETF for a signal…weakness there and I think RGLD looks like a nice r/r short today through 68.25 Friday a.m. lows.

4.) Traditional short:  LO

Heavy volume sell off on Friday down to recent range low support just under 125 after failing to clear its 20d on recent bounce attempt.  Not much support below on the daily chart here through last week’s lows.  Looks like a good r/r short if the market is in sell mode today.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Black Joe Lewis & the Honeybears

 

The Early Bird Report

Top 5 RSI (14 period) by Sector:

Financials

(S&P 500):  HCP  EFX  LM  CINF  AIV
(non S&P 500):  NSM  AGNC  NLY  MFA  RWT

Tech

(S&P 500):  VZ  TRIP  T  BMC  CTL
(non S&P 500):  DMD  AOL  DGI  CYMI  DDD

Industrials

(S&P 500):  SHW  SRCL  DHI  PWR  ITW
(non S&P 500):  TASR  TOL  DCI  MTH  MDC

Consumer Goods

(S&P 500):  DF  HRL  RAI  NWL  KMB
(non S&P 500):  HAIN   TRLG  CRI  CHD  PPC

Basic Materials:

(S&P 500) NEM  PPG  TSO  COG  SIAL
(non S&P 500): WG  FGP  RGLD  IOC  BWP

Services:

(S&P 500): WMT  EXPE  LUV  AN  TGT
(non S&P 500): SFL  BWS  SONC LCC  PETM

Healthcare

(S&P 500): EW  LLY  WPI  ABT  BCR
(non S&P 500):  VRTX  AKRX  ARNA  PCYC  ISIS

 

Bottom 5 RSI (14 period) by Sector:

Financials

(S&P 500):  AIZ  MS  UNM  GS  PRU
(non S&P 500): JEF  UNM  RY  SFI  RGA

Tech

(S&P 500): NTAP  DELL  LXK  CSCO  JDSU
(non S&P 500):  MXWL  VIP  ELX   SNCR  NEWP

Industrials

(S&P 500)  FLR  LMT  RTN  COL  ATI
(non S&P 500)  AIR  SHAW  MLM  B  CR

Consumer Goods

(S&P 500) FOSL SEE  OI  EL  XRX
(non S&P 500) CQB  RAH  RKT  SNE  MNRO

Basic Materials

(S&P 500)  X  TIE  APC  DVN  DD
(non S&P 500)  HGT  ERF  SLCA  PWE  OMG

Services

(S&P 500)  TIF  WYNN  SAI  ANF  DV
(non S&P 500) CACI  KBR  CTCM  AVT  KEX

Healthcare

(S&P 500) TEVA  NXTM  PBH  DNDN  LNCR
(non S&P 500)  JNJ  LIFE  BAX  CELG  HSP

Sunday Night Scans

No EBR for today, May 25, as I am out of the office.  Enjoy the long weekend.

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-24-12

SPY’s are pretty much unchanged this morning  after roaring into the close yesterday afternoon.    I don’t want to nitpick, but the move yesterday afternoon felt more like a levitation rather than a buying frenzy…the volume just felt light to me.  Can’t argue with price, however, and today bulls will be looking to push out past Tuesday’s highs at 133.23.  The 10d MA gets in the way there, so it’ll be an interesting battle to see if this rally is more dead cat than real.    It wouldn’t surprise me to see sellers come out in force this morning and send us into the red during early trading…if the market can take that punch and hold on, I think we may see that move out to new highs.

 

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up–  P  HPQ  PVH  SNPS  VSEC    CLDX  EBAY  TEVA  COST  TTC

Gapping Down —  NTAP   MNOV   TIF  SIG  MNRO  MTGE  HNZ

No indication —  BRS  AFCE  HTWR    FLO  SIGM  MMYT

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: HW  CPWR  AMBT

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: EXPE  TRIP   CRUS  EAT  TOL  MTH  CSTR  EW  CYMI  VRTX  ATHN

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  ROVI  VAR  FRX  EBIX

GoPauseGo:  LGF XEL  CYMI  DSW  REE

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): PEP

Up to 200d:

Up to 50d: LGF  FIS  SFL  ABG  PLL  N  NEM  GDP

Up to 20d: GM  DAN  PAAS  GE  SBUX  PAYX  SWK  CMG  TDG  UA  CHRW  PIR  MOH  ROK  EXPD

Down to 20d PGN  NEE  T

Down to 50d: CL  PEG  ABT

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

 

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  VRTX

This stock is up quite a bit from early in the month after some drug data results.  65 was the pivot high the day after those results were published.  Since then, the stock has stayed in a range betwee 60-66 (in a pretty lousy equity environment), and yesterday closed on highs as it approaches the top end of that range.  The bull flag setup on the daily chart illustrates the action of a stock that may be ready to be one of those institutional investor “must own”  momentum stocks.  Watching today above 64.50, will ignore it as a long below 63.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  HW

4.50 is the double top resistance area in this name, stalling out there in late March and late April.  Watchtoday for some volume to see if it can push through.  Yesterday it showed some nice strength late, rallying to highs on good volume.

3.)  Pullback long:  PEP

Kind of a weird time to be looking at pullback buys.  The market has rallied this week, and for a stock to have pulled back during this time is a bit of a red flag.  That said, PEP gets a break for having pulled back this week, as it was a major outperformer during the selloff last week.  Saw the stock leave a sizeable wick to the downside yesterday, indicating a possible near term pivot/bottom.  I’d avoid it today if it trades back below 67.40.

4.) Traditional short: FIS

Good looking chart, actually…but from the short side today, if we get mkt weakness I think you can look to sell into stocks that have seen solid three day bounces into resistance.  FIS qualifies here, as it has bounced back up to its 50d MA as well as early month pivot high resistance just under 33.  Avoid it as a short over 33, may look to add to any position below yesterday’s a.m low at 32.30

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of 311

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-23-12

Big gap down in the SPY’s after global weakness overnight and a a poor close here yesterday.  U.S. markets tried to follow through yesterday after Monday’s big rally, but the move lost steam in the afternoon.  Back in the 130 handle,  any flush on the open may bring Friday pivot lows into play.    Truth be told, a gap down like this is a very good tell as to whether what we’ve seen the last couple of days was just a dead cat bounce (bears’ case) or a meaningful short term bottom (bull case).

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up–  QIHU  GES   CPWR  TTWO  PETM  AVGO  GCO  HRL  ZLC  MOV  RCON  AMSC

Gapping Down —  ADI  DELL  BIG  TSL

No indication —  HEI  DY  MO  XUE  TOL  EPAM    HGG  STP   AEO

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: PPC  PRKR  GENE

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: CPRT  DECK  OPEN  LGF

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  KNX  BIG  OCR  ALB  MDT

GoPauseGo:  RVBD  CRR  MENT  IN  MMR  NPSP

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):

Up to 200d: AN

Up to 50d: V  SIAL  LGF  ULTA

Up to 20d: PLL  ONXX  NKE  SWKS  TSCO  DFT

Down to 20d: SPPI  HNZ

Down to 50d: KO  BRO  VAC  AMGN  FBHS

Down to 200d: LOW  IVZ

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

 

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  DECK/OPEN/CRR

Beaten up former momentum stock (DECK) has actually performed pretty well of late, climbing out of a base and  now pushing into a gap on the daily chart.  Eyeing through yesterday’s highs for some follow through IF we aren’t seeing major selling across the board.  CRR is not attempting to fill a gap on the daily, but pushed out to 5 day highs and had a tight range distribution day yesterday.  Watching it for 3rd day follow through (GoPauseGo).

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  NPSP

This stock shot higher on Monday, and didn’t do much yesterday.  Watching volume and price action above 7.90 for a 3rd day follow through move.  Would stay away if it trades below 7.65.

3.)  Pullback long:  LOW

I am really not looking forward to buying stocks that are still pulling back after this two day rally in the markets.  LOW is a bit of a different story, as it is still sinking after digesting its earnings report Monday morning.  I am going to watch the stock at its 200d to see if any value buyers step in.

4.) Traditional short: V

Its not that I dislike the name, I just am looking at this as a play into resistance at its 50d.  Big two day bounce w/ the markets back up to the 20/50d Moving Averages (20 bearishly crossing down through the 50), if weakness returns to the markets and this stock struggles w/ those averages and yesterday’s resistance at 119 and change, it seems like a good risk/reward short to me.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Silversun Pickups

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-22-12

SPY’s are gapping up a bit here this morning after we got our big counter-trend rally/bounce yesterday.  The rally was led by former “leaders” like AAPL, V, AMZN, PCLN, NKE and the like, and was more pronounced in the Nasdaq rather than the S&P.  Financials didn’t really participate, and I think we’re going to need them to, if this bounce wants to be a bottom vs. a dead cat.  Also worth noting that the volume was a bit light, but we’re used to that…the only time it seems we get heavy volume is when we sell off.  Pre-market lows in the SPY are 131.80 and I’ll be watching that area for a pivot on the open, as well as 131.30.

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– ECTY  URBN  ALXN  CSUN  WSM  NDSN  MDT  BBY

Gapping Down — AZO  EXPR  RL

No indication — DSW  CBRL

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: TASR  WG

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: MENT  OPTR  ALXN  FIRE PCYC

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  ANGI  PETM  PEG

GoPauseGo:

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend): ABT  TSN

Up to 200d:

Up to 50d: AU  RAI  PCP

Up to 20d: EXH  MYGN  CPHD  DVA  DLX  WLP  DGX  THO  MYL  PCP

Down to 20d:

Down to 50d: SPRD  VAC

Down to 200d:

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

 

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  FIRE

Simpy put, this stock looking at this chart, you’d be hard pressed to believe we saw a steep selloff in equity markets.  The pullback from highs looks very orderly, and the stock bounced nicely out to 5 day highs yesterday as we recovered.    Much like WMT yesterday, this has to be a name on traders’ relative strength short lists.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  WG

Broke out of a month long consolidating wedge formation yesterday and is now approaching the 5.50 area which is a pivot high from late April and back to last October.  Good volume yesterday, watching for continuation today.

3.)  Pullback long:  ABT

Tough to really call this a pullback play.  In fact, you could call ABT the breakout play, and FIRE the pullback play if you really wanted to, but on a shorter timeframe, ABT is still underneath 5 day highs here as it tries to recapture its 20d MA.  61.16 is the pivot low from earlier in the month and would seem to be a good (though likely popular) area to place a stop, while looking for  a move back up past 52 week highs.

4.) Traditional short: ANGI

As the Facebook IPO melt continues, and we see other social peers fade (ZNGA YELP),  I would think ANGI may be next in line to take out post-IPO lows.  It bounced from 10.77 in late December, and a move below 12.75 (April pivot lows and early Jan. pivot lows) could bring that move into play.  Its a fairly thin stock, and I’d also imagine prone to a bounce if we see FB rally, but I’d lean short for now.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of Deerhunter

 

The Early Bird Report

Early Bird Report5-21-12

SPY’s are indicating higher here this morning after some “bullish” European headlines over the weekend, although we are toward the lows of the prem-market session.  129.55 was the low from Friday, and will be watched as support, as well as 129.42 (Oct. pivot high area).  The 129 area will be interesting as well as it is the 38.2% Fib retracement area from the SPY move from Oct. pivot lows to April highs.   Gap ups were nothing but ammunition for bears last week, as sellers came into any and all rallies.  This weak  action has crushed bulls and led to afternoon  acceleration to the downside as we kept seeing frustraed bulls give up.   As we see daily chart  candles stretch to the downside, we have to remember that one of these days the “oversold” status will  lead to a bounce (it could be due to short covering, or it could be a real bottom…tough to know)…and more than likely it’ll be a vicious one,  common during downtrends.    I think most bulls would like to see an early gap down or washout move (especially after all the failed gap ups last week),  but that doesn’t look like it’ll happen today.  Will be keeping an eye on certain sectors for strength to see if they can “lead” today, as well as individual setups outlined in this report.

News/Earnings Stocks (as of 7:30 a.m. CT publication)

Gapping Up– YHOO  SWHC  EFUT  KKD

Gapping Down —  LOW  CPB  AVP  BLK

No indication — TECD  ACHN

Watchlist: This is a breakdown of stocks w/ certain technical characteristics in light of  yesterday’s action, NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

Under $10  range break long momentum  looks with strong closes/actionable charts: HALO  LEDR  ROSG  MCHX

Over $10 long  looks w/ strong closes/actionable charts coming out of a range: SCVL  BWS  WMT  SODA  OXY

Weak close/weak chart/downside range break:  SYY  UNH  AMED  IBM  AWAY  MENT  CVH  CVD  XOM  EP  CHRW  HSP  CPRT  FRX  PXD  ACN

GoPauseGo:  AME  PETM  (down)

Pocket Pullback (3-5 day orderly pullback from strong trend):  BMRN  BMC

Up to 200d:

Up to 50d:

Up to 20d:

Down to 20d: EIX  DRI  SWI  BMC  OPTR  BMRN  HSY

Down to 50d: FBHS  CB  EBAY  LLY  VAC  KFT  VRSK  NI  CAKE  ADM  PCG  DNKN  BRO  VVUS

Down to 200d:  WCG  FLS  TROW  KSU  HOT  WY  IVZ

Current Positions in our Ditto Trade Mirrored Swing Account:

Long DDD from 22.05 (1/4 of original position.  Sold 1/2 at 26.90 and stopped out of 1/4 at 30.76).

 

4  ideas for today’s trading day:

These are ideas…. NOT recommendations.    The idea behind this section of the report is to illustrate my thought process when looking at potential swing and day trades.  Often times I trade these setups, many times I don’t…dictated by market tone for that day.  Complement these ideas with your ownresearch before making any trading decisions.   Always consult your own registered broker/advisor before initiating any positions.

1.)  Breakout long:  WMT

Hard not to notice this stock and how it completely refused to succumb to market pressure on Friday.  A decent follow through day post-earnings, if it breaks two day highs, it’ll be in 52 week high territory, busting through double top resistance around 62.50.  Pretty impressive in light of recent market weakness.  I have to think that if we do rally today, there might be some oversold names that may give better upside moves, but I think its important to keep this on the long radar due to the impressive price action.

2.) Small cap / Sub $10 long:  HALO

Not much to choose from or like in this group, but HALO did buck the trend Friday, running up early in the trading day up over 7.90, and then holding those gains the rest of the session on good volume as the market tanked.  Worth watching today for some follow through.

3.)  Pullback long:  EBAY

Four days of pullback in this name after losing its 20d last week.  I’m a little bit leery of the name, as it is in the midst of filling its pos-earnings gap  on the daily chart, but I think the fact that its 50d right here is sitting on old pivot highs from late March, may give it the support it needs.  Watching to see how it handles that 50d if we open lower…if it does and the market looks like its ready for a bounce, I’ll look here for a bounce play.

4.) Traditional short:  UNH

Stock couldn’t hang on Friday, and it broke down out of a tight consolidation pattern on the short term daily chart, Seeing the 20d bearishly cross below the 50d here, all after a double top was formed in April, which has led to a head and shoulder’s formation that is losing its right shoulder.  Some pivot low support still just below 54, but I’m not sure this one will be able to hang on if we continue lower.

The creation of this morning’s Early Bird Report was compiled while listening to the music of  Husker Du

 

The Early Bird Report

Top 5 RSI (14 period) by Sector:

Financials

(S&P 500):  TRV  EFX  LM  HCP  ALL
(non S&P 500):  NSM  MTGE  WIBC  AMTG  PRE

Tech

(S&P 500):  VZ  T  TRIP  BMC Y HOO
(non S&P 500):  DLB A OL  DGI  VHC  ELNK

Industrials

(S&P 500):  DHI  GE  SHW  PWR  LEN
(non S&P 500):  TASR  MTH  TOL  RYL  MHK

Consumer Goods

(S&P 500): DF  PEP  HSY  MKC  KMB
(non S&P 500):  CHD  HAIN  TRLG  HOGS  MNST

Basic Materials:

(S&P 500) COG  RRC SWN  NEM  TSO
(non S&P 500): WG  RGLD  AU  XCO  WNR

Services:

(S&P 500): WMT  EXPE  DRI  AMZN  ROST
(non S&P 500): BWS  SONC  GEO  LYV  LL

Healthcare:

(S&P 500): PFE  EW  BIIB  ABT  LLY
(non S&P 500): VRTX  ARNA  AMLN  AKRX  SEM

Bottom 5 RSI (14 period) by Sector:

Financials

(S&P 500):  SLM  C  UNM  PRU  JPM
(non S&P 500): JEF  SFI   LPLA  ORI  EV

Tech:

(S&P 500):  LXK  SNDK  MCHP  DELL  MOLX
(non S&P 500): TTWO  FSL  MXWL  ITRI  ARUN

Industrials

(S&P 500) FLIR  VMC  LMT  FLR  ATI
(non S&P 500) KMT  CX  MLM  DAR  MTW

Consumer Goods

(S&P 500) FOSL OI  PBI  F  IP
(non S&P 500) RKT CQB WRC VRA NAV

Basic Materials:

(S&P 500) CLF  NUE  NOV  X  MPC
(non S&P 500) BPL  QRE  ERF  MTL  SWC

Services

(S&P 500) SAI  R  BBY  MCO  JEC

(non S&P 500) CACI  AAP  CEL  ARCO  TRN

Healthcare

(S&P 500) LIFE  BAX  AET  CI  HSP
(non S&P 500) HNT  TEVA  MAKO NXTM  HRC

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